A comprehensive new study published in Earth System Science Data on 11 June warns that the world is on track to surpass the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C warming threshold by around 2030 if current emission trends continue. The fourth edition of the Indicators of Global Climate Change (IGCC) report, compiled by more than 70 researchers from 56 institutions across 17 countries, shows that human-induced warming has already reached 1.37°C above pre-industrial levels in 2025.
“Our study shows greenhouse gas emissions are at an all-time high, mainly from the burning of fossil fuels,” said Dr. William Lamb, Senior Researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in Germany. “The good news is that solutions are already available. By investing in renewables and electrification, governments can cut emissions while building cleaner, more reliable and more secure energy systems.”
Carbon budget shrinking fast
The remaining carbon budget — the total amount of CO₂ that can still be emitted while keeping warming below 1.5°C — now stands at just 130 billion tonnes from the start of 2026. At current emission levels, that budget will be exhausted in approximately three years. Global greenhouse gas emissions reached a record 56.8 billion tonnes of CO₂ equivalent in 2024, driven primarily by fossil fuel combustion. Concentrations of the three major greenhouse gases — carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide — have all risen since 2019, with CO₂ now at 425.6 parts per million.
“It comes down to a simple principle: we are emitting more greenhouse gases than ever before, causing rising greenhouse gas levels which are trapping more and more heat in the atmosphere and pushing the world out of balance,” said Dr Matt Palmer, science fellow at the UK Met Office.
Earth’s energy imbalance at record high
The report also highlights that the Earth’s energy imbalance — the difference between incoming solar radiation and outgoing heat — has more than doubled in recent decades and is now at a record high. This means the planet is storing heat faster than at any point in modern measurements. “The Earth’s energy imbalance is growing fast, driving changes in every component of the climate system, including ocean and continental warming, permafrost thawing, ice loss, and sea level rise,” said Dr Karina Von Schuckmann from the French research institute Mercator Ocean International.
Global sea levels reached a new record in 2025, rising 23 cm since 1901, and the rate of rise is accelerating. Oceans are absorbing much of the excess heat, with average sea surface temperatures hitting their second highest level on record last year. A newly added indicator in this year’s report shows that the number of marine heatwave days has more than tripled globally between 1991 and 2025. In 2025 alone, the world experienced 65 marine heatwave days, damaging ecosystems, threatening fish stocks and disrupting the ocean-atmosphere systems that regulate the climate.
On land, average maximum temperatures over the last decade were nearly half a degree higher than the decade before, pushing extreme heat to new levels worldwide. “Nearly all of the warming over the last decade is driven by human activities,” said Dr Samantha Burgess of the Copernicus Climate Change Service. “The impacts on livelihoods and ecosystems are already being felt worldwide, and will accelerate as temperatures continue to increase.”
The scientists behind the report also warn about a less visible risk: the global datasets used to track these changes are themselves under threat. Funding cuts — including the Trump administration’s decision to scrap the US State Department’s global air quality monitoring programme last year — are creating dangerous gaps in the evidence base that climate science and policy depend on. European institutions, such as the Copernicus Climate Change Service based in Bonn and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in Reading, remain critical to maintaining these observations.
As European policymakers prepare for the next round of climate negotiations, the IGCC report underscores the urgency of accelerating the transition to renewable energy and electrification. The findings also highlight the need for robust investment in climate monitoring infrastructure across the continent and beyond.
