As Poland and Lithuania prepare to sign off on nearly €49 billion in EU defence loans on Friday, the bloc’s defence chief has warned that Europe is still not moving fast enough to counter Russia’s military buildup. The timing of the agreements—one day before Moscow’s annual Victory Day parade—is deliberately symbolic, according to European Commissioner for Defence Andrius Kubilius.
Kubilius and Budget Commissioner Piotr Serafin will travel to Warsaw and Vilnius to finalise the loans, which are part of the EU’s SAFE (Security Action for Europe) programme. Poland is set to receive the largest share, worth €43 billion, while Lithuania will get €6 billion. The initiative, spearheaded by the European Commission, aims to strengthen the continent’s defence capabilities against external threats, particularly Russia.
Russia’s Production Advantage
Speaking to Euronews’ Europe Today ahead of the signing, Kubilius struck a sobering tone. “Russia is outproducing us, and quite heavily, so that is what worries us,” he said. “What still needs to be done is for our industries to ramp up and produce more, and to do so more quickly.”
His comments echo warnings from NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, who has previously noted that Russia produces as much ammunition in three months as the alliance’s 32 member states manufacture in a year. Several EU officials, including Kubilius, have also cautioned that Russia could be capable of attacking a European country within five years. “In Europe, we see very clearly that the possibility of Russian aggression against EU or NATO member states is real,” Kubilius added.
While the defence industry is increasing production, Kubilius said concerns remain among EU governments that manufacturers are still not scaling up quickly enough to meet urgent demand. The warning comes as Russian drones have been reported crashing in Latvia, underscoring the proximity of the threat.
Poland’s Ambitious Defence Plans
Poland plans to spend €46 billion across four flagship programmes, ranging from strengthening drone defences to reinforcing its 400-kilometre border with Belarus. The Polish government aims to direct at least 80% of the funding towards domestic spending, supporting around 12,000 businesses. Prime Minister Donald Tusk has described the effort as the country’s top priority. “A well-armed Poland, as self-reliant as possible while cooperating closely with allies in a modern way—this is the absolute number one priority,” Tusk said. “There is no more important issue today. Every month, week and hour will affect the level of our security, that of the region and of the wider world.”
Last year, 20 drones entered Polish airspace, prompting a NATO response involving Spanish, Dutch and Italian fighter jets. Tusk described the Russian drones—some of which were shot down—as a “direct threat”.
Lithuania’s Defence Boost
Lithuania will use its €6 billion allocation to strengthen its land forces division through new combat capabilities, logistics systems and increased firepower. Defence Minister Robertas Kaunas said the funding would “accelerate the formation process, pay for the required ammunition stocks, modernise weapons systems and contribute to the Baltic Defence Line”. President Gitanas Nausėda added that part of the funding would also be used to purchase and produce defence equipment for Ukraine, which continues to endure Russia’s full-scale invasion.
“The decision by the European Commission to approve more than €6.3 billion for Lithuania is a critical boost to our efforts to strengthen our defensive capabilities,” Kaunas said. “It is not just financial assistance, but also a clear sign of trust in Lithuania and in our strategy to enhance deterrence and defence.”
SAFE Programme Details and Challenges
Around 15% of the SAFE funds allocated to Poland and Lithuania will be disbursed by the end of May, with remaining payments released every six months, provided the member states comply with the European Commission’s conditions. All funds must be spent by 2030. Eighteen member states applied for a slice of the €150 billion SAFE funding pool, including Hungary. Despite Budapest’s application being placed on the back burner by incoming Hungarian Prime Minister Péter Magyar, who cited corruption concerns, Kubilius expressed confidence that the application would proceed, noting that reviews are standard procedure.
Kubilius emphasised the symbolic weight of Friday’s signing in Warsaw. “It is showing really that we’re ready to deter and to defend ourselves,” he said. “It is very symbolic that we are doing this in Poland, because Poland is the country taking on the greatest responsibility and receiving the largest share of these loans.”
The urgency of Europe’s defence efforts is further highlighted by Ukraine’s accusations that Russia has violated ceasefire proposals with drone and missile barrages. As the continent grapples with the reality of a revanchist Russia, the SAFE programme represents a significant—but perhaps still insufficient—step toward collective security.
