The European Union faces a significantly more difficult task this summer to refill its natural gas storage ahead of winter, as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East drive up prices and competition for liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes intensifies with Asia. According to a new assessment from the European Union Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER), storage levels stood at just 28 percent of capacity on 1 April, the lowest start to the injection season in four years.
That figure raises serious questions about whether the bloc can meet its legally binding target of 90 percent storage by 1 November, a requirement introduced after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The European Commission has advised member states to aim for 80 percent, with some leeway for those facing difficult conditions to refill to as low as 70 percent.
LNG imports must rise sharply
ACER’s summer supply outlook warns that achieving the 90 percent target will require LNG imports to increase by roughly 13 percent compared with 2025 levels. While the EU could still reach 80 percent with last year’s import volumes, filling to 90 percent will demand substantially more shipments. The challenge is compounded by higher gas prices, partly driven by the conflict in the Middle East and the intermittent closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy trade.
“For the EU, the direct supply impact is relatively limited – Qatari LNG accounted for around 8 percent of imports in 2025, although some member states remain more exposed than others – but the market remains highly exposed to global price dynamics and competition for cargoes, particularly with Asia,” ACER’s report states.
Ronald Pinto, an energy analyst at market intelligence firm Kpler, noted that Asian buyers imported the highest volumes of LNG from the Atlantic basin in May and June to partly offset the loss of supply from the Strait of Hormuz. “Stronger LNG demand in Asia has translated into lower LNG imports into the EU 27,” he said. “Despite European underground gas storage levels remaining around 10 percentage points below last year’s levels, European buyers have not aggressively bid for additional LNG supply.”
EU LNG imports during May and June 2025 were 2.37 million tonnes higher than in the same period this year, according to Kpler data. Pinto added that market participants appear to be betting on a gradual resumption of Middle Eastern LNG exports over the summer, which would ease prices and free up supply for Europe to secure cargoes at lower rates in September and October.
Phasing out Russian gas
The planned phase-out of short-term Russian LNG and pipeline gas contracts under EU law is also expected to tighten supply. Imports of Russian pipeline gas under existing short-term contracts have been prohibited since June, following earlier bans on new contracts. However, LNG imports from Russia into the EU have actually increased this year compared to last year. Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen said recently: “One step at a time, we are phasing out all remaining imports of Russian gas from our energy system. And the goal is clear: getting to zero. This is key for our energy security and independence, for the resilience of our markets and to keep supporting Ukraine in its quest for freedom.”
Despite these headwinds, ACER concludes that Europe’s gas system remains resilient. Expanded LNG regasification capacity, including newly commissioned terminals, is enhancing import capacity and system flexibility, enabling higher LNG inflows and improved cooperation among member states. However, storage injections currently remain below both the 10-year seasonal average and last year’s pace, with storage now at around 49 percent capacity – similar to levels seen in 2021. The regulators urge EU member states to closely monitor progress and take action where necessary to safeguard energy security ahead of winter.
Meanwhile, a looming Commission declaration on methane emissions rules is causing anxiety among energy producers and EU countries. Critics argue that a proposed three-year penalty waiver, mentioned in a draft text seen by Euronews, could jeopardise the bloc’s energy supply. At least 12 EU countries have called for the rules to be scrapped, while major exporters such as the US, Qatar, Algeria and Nigeria have threatened to cut or reduce supply if the rules increase their costs. The industry lobby group, the International Association of Oil & Gas Producers, said its advocacy focused primarily on importer requirements for monitoring, reporting and verification to be introduced on 1 January 2027.
As European households and businesses brace for another winter, the interplay between storage targets, global market dynamics, and regulatory decisions will be critical. For a deeper look at how individual countries are adapting, see our report on German Households Turn to Battery Storage to Escape Fossil Fuel Price Volatility. The broader energy landscape is also shifting, with OPEC+ Modestly Boosts Output as Oil Prices Return to Pre-War Levels, offering some relief but not enough to offset the gas-specific pressures.
