The 27 heads of state and government of the European Union convened in Brussels on Thursday for a two-day summit that places Russia's war in Ukraine, the economic shockwaves from China, and the bloc's next long-term budget at the centre of discussions. The agenda also includes the situation in the Middle East, European competitiveness, drug trafficking, and migration.
This summit follows a closely watched G7 meeting in Évian, France, where US President Donald Trump was persuaded to sign a joint statement pledging increased military support for Kyiv and tougher sanctions on Russia. For European leaders, securing Trump's endorsement represents a significant diplomatic achievement, helping to paper over persistent fractures in the transatlantic alliance.
The White House's unilateral decision to grant three consecutive waivers for Russian oil imports had been a source of intense friction. However, in Évian, Trump indicated that the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, following a framework deal between the US and Iran, would soon allow his administration to reinstate restrictions. The EU is now preparing a new sanctions package to capitalise on the growing strain on Moscow's war machine. 'It is the moment to continue putting pressure on Russia, and that's what we're working towards,' a European Commission spokesperson said.
Zelenskyy's Push for Fast-Track Membership
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, fresh from the G7, joined the 27 leaders on Thursday for the first segment of the summit, which aims to revive peace negotiations and bring Russian President Vladimir Putin seriously to the table. António Costa, the president of the European Council, has made 'brief contacts' with Russia at a 'diplomatic level to open communication channels, but nothing was discussed on substance,' an EU official confirmed. Member states remain sharply divided on the idea of direct talks.
Zelenskyy also raised the issue of EU accession, following the opening of the first cluster of negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova on Monday. In Évian, he doubled down on his request for fast-tracked membership. 'Russia will find a way to block Ukraine's way to the EU. They don't want to see us successful,' he said. 'That's why we need a fast track.' However, the prospect of an accelerated process has been met with resistance from EU leaders, who insist on preserving the integrity and credibility of the complex methodology. Diplomats are concerned that public opinion is not yet sold on enlargement, and much more work is needed to secure voters' buy-in. 'There's only one track, and that's the track of merit,' a senior diplomat said. 'If you become an EU member, you sit around the table and decide upon 30% of the national legislation. So I want only countries around that table that have the same rule-of-law values as others.'
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz plans to propose an alternative scenario: 'associate membership,' which would include observer status at EU meetings and mutual assistance in case of armed attack. However, the pitch has received mixed reviews from Kyiv and other capitals and is unlikely to gain traction on Thursday.
China Trade Imbalance and the €2 Trillion Budget
Following the discussion with Zelenskyy, EU leaders turned to a hotly anticipated debate on China. Brussels has concluded that EU-China trade is unsustainable, and something must change to avoid an all-out confrontation. Last year was the first on record that all 27 member states posted a trade deficit with Beijing. Fears of de-industrialisation have become tangible. 'We're not naive anymore. China's five-year plan is an attack on our market,' a second senior diplomat said. 'The cost of action will be less than the cost of inaction.'
While the grim diagnosis is widely shared, the prescribed medicine remains under careful consideration. Some member states—including France, Poland, Belgium, the Netherlands, Sweden, Denmark, and Lithuania—favour a more assertive stance to correct trade imbalances and crack down on Beijing's subsidies. Others, like Germany, Spain, and Greece, are hesitant to confront China aggressively, fearing devastating retaliation and loss of business opportunities. The divisions played out during dinner on Thursday, designed as an open exchange. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who has long warned about a 'new China shock,' is paying close attention. Her team wants to use the political feedback to guide future action, which may include new trade instruments. The Commission has struggled to get support for triggering the Anti-Coercion Instrument against China, despite rampant accusations of blackmail. 'We want dialogue, but dialogue has to deliver. We like competition, but competition has to be fair,' von der Leyen said earlier this month.
On Friday, leaders will turn to the next seven-year EU budget, which the Commission has pencilled at a record-breaking €2 trillion. Cyprus, holding the EU Council presidency, has proposed a 'moderate' 2% cut, worth €32.8 billion, to the original draft. The debate is expected to be contentious, with countries keen on preserving spending for agriculture and cohesion funds clashing with those pushing for more investment in defence and competitiveness. The summit also touches on broader European competitiveness, a topic explored in depth in our analysis of integration versus deregulation in the face of US and China.
As the summit unfolds, the EU's ability to navigate these multiple challenges—from Ukraine to China to internal budget battles—will test the bloc's unity and strategic coherence. The outcomes will shape European policy for years to come.
