As of January 2026, the European Union's population stood at an estimated 452 million, an increase of 706,000 inhabitants over the previous year, according to fresh data from Eurostat. This marks the fifth straight year of demographic expansion, reversing the pandemic-era dip recorded in 2021.
Over the past decade, the bloc has added roughly 8 million people. Looking further back, the combined population of current EU member states has grown from 354.5 million in 1960 to today's figure. Yet the pace of growth has slowed markedly: average annual increases fell from 3 million in the 1960s to just 600,000 in the 2010s.
Small States, Big Growth Rates
The most populous countries still dominate the bloc's demographic weight. Germany leads with 83.5 million residents (18.5% of the EU total), followed by France (69.1 million, 15.3%), Italy (58.9 million, 13%), Spain (49.6 million, 11%), and Poland (36.3 million, 8%). Together, these five nations account for two-thirds of the EU's population.
At the other end of the scale, Malta (588,000), Luxembourg (691,000), and Cyprus (997,000) are the smallest member states. Yet these same countries recorded the highest population growth rates over the past year. Malta's population increased by 24 per 1,000 inhabitants, Cyprus by 14, and Luxembourg by 13. They were among 16 EU countries where the population rose.
In contrast, Latvia (-8 per 1,000), Estonia (-7), and Hungary (-5) experienced the steepest rates of decline. These trends reflect broader shifts in migration and fertility across the continent.
Eurostat notes that since 2012, natural population change—the difference between births and deaths—has been negative across the EU. Positive net migration has compensated for this deficit, keeping overall numbers afloat. This pattern is likely to persist as birth rates remain low in many member states.
Long-Term Outlook: A Shrinking Continent
Despite the current uptick, Eurostat's long-term projections paint a different picture. By 2100, the EU's population is expected to shrink by 11.7%, or 53 million people, driven primarily by falling fertility rates. Some governments have already begun to respond. French President Emmanuel Macron has called for "demographic rearmament" after France recorded more deaths than births for the first time since the end of World War II in 2025. The government has since introduced additional parental leave, allowing parents to share one or two extra months beyond existing entitlements.
These demographic dynamics have economic implications. Countries with shrinking populations may face labor shortages and pressure on public finances, while those with robust growth—often driven by migration—could see expanded workforces and consumer markets. For instance, scaleup growth in Europe has been strongest in Latvia, Portugal, and Greece, showing that population decline does not necessarily stifle entrepreneurial dynamism.
Meanwhile, the concentration of population in the largest states means that policy decisions in Berlin, Paris, and Rome disproportionately shape EU-wide outcomes. Yet the high growth rates in smaller nations like Malta and Luxembourg highlight how migration and economic opportunity can rapidly alter local demographics.
As Europe's population ages and birth rates remain low, the continent will need to navigate a future where migration plays an increasingly central role in sustaining both population and prosperity. The data from Eurostat offers a snapshot of where the EU stands today—and a glimpse of the challenges ahead.
