Europe is bracing for another month of above-average temperatures as early seasonal forecasts point to a warmer-than-normal August across much of the continent. Following a series of intense heatwaves that pushed thermometers past 40°C in several countries, the outlook offers little respite, particularly for southern Europe.
Ioanna Vergini, founder of the weather forecasting platform WFY24, told European Pulse that the latest seasonal updates from early July all tilt the odds toward a warmer-than-normal August. “The strongest, most confident heat signal sits over the Mediterranean and south-eastern Europe,” she said, pointing to recurring heat clusters in Iberia, Italy, Greece, and parts of the Balkans.
The exceptionally warm Mediterranean Sea is a key driver of this persistent heat. “The exceptionally warm Mediterranean is leaving a fingerprint on land, and in several places it shows up in the nights rather than the afternoons,” Vergini added. WFY24 forecasts that cities such as Naples, Barcelona, Rome, Valencia, Nice, Thessaloniki, Split, and Athens will experience tropical nights—where temperatures remain above 20°C—every single night during the first days of August. These conditions increase the risk of severe heat stress, especially for vulnerable populations like the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.
Even northern Europe is not immune. The UK Met Office has warned that highs of 35°C are possible in August, with its long-range forecast stating that “temperatures will probably be above normal and some spells of hot weather and heatwaves are possible, especially in the south.” This pattern echoes the broader trend across the continent, where Spain has already faced multiple heatwaves this summer, with temperatures reaching up to 45°C in some areas.
What science says about the role of climate change
Advances in extreme event attribution have made it easier for scientists to link individual heatwaves to human-caused climate change. Researchers compare how often such events occur today versus in a world without global warming, using climate models and observational data. For example, a rapid attribution analysis by World Weather Attribution (WWA) examined the hottest three-day period across a large swath of Europe in late June. The study concluded that both daytime highs and overnight temperatures would have been “virtually impossible to occur at this time of year” as recently as 1976. It also found that a similar heatwave occurring 50 years ago would have been 3.5°C cooler than the one last month.
Dr. Keeping, a climate scientist quoted in the analysis, emphasized the direct link between fossil fuel emissions and the disruption people face. “Continued fossil-fuel emissions are directly responsible for the disruption people are experiencing in their homes, schools and workplaces. The speed of change is startling. Every few years we are seeing heat records shattered in Europe. This year it has been in consecutive months.”
Another study from Imperial College London, the UK Met Office, and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine estimated that maximum daytime temperatures during two recent heatwaves were 3°C to 4°C higher than they would have been without global warming, resulting in an estimated 10,000 excess deaths. Simon Stiell, UN Climate Change Executive Secretary, stated: “Extreme heat is shattering records across Europe and the science is very clear about why: climate change is running rampant, caused by the world’s addiction to burning coal, oil and gas.”
While atmospheric patterns like heat domes—where a high-pressure system traps hot air near the surface—are often cited as immediate causes, research shows that climate change is making these patterns more frequent. A 2025 study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences found that such locking atmospheric patterns have nearly tripled since the 1950s due to human-driven climate change. This aligns with the WHO's warnings that Europe is unprepared for deadly heatwaves, as infrastructure and health systems struggle to cope with the escalating threat.
As August approaches, the message from forecasters and scientists is clear: the heat is not an anomaly but a symptom of a warming world. With tropical nights becoming more common and heatwaves intensifying, European governments face mounting pressure to adapt—both through emergency measures and long-term emissions reductions.
