Half the world's population owes its existence to synthetic fertilisers. At the core of modern agriculture lies ammonia, the essential ingredient for nitrogen-based fertilisers that sustain crop yields globally. Developed by German scientists Fritz Haber and Carl Bosch in the early twentieth century, the industrial synthesis of ammonia transformed food systems and propelled unprecedented population growth. It also helped establish Europe as a leader in scientific and industrial innovation.
Today, however, the same process that once gave Europe an edge now exposes it to growing economic, geopolitical, and environmental risks. The modern food system remains tethered to fossil fuels because ammonia production relies heavily on natural gas as a feedstock for hydrogen. When gas prices rise, fertiliser production becomes significantly more expensive, undermining the competitiveness of European industry and raising costs across the agricultural value chain.
A Fragile Dependency Exposed
Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, this vulnerability has become impossible to ignore. In 2022, European gas prices surged more than tenfold, from historically low levels to record highs. Fertiliser plants across the continent, including industrial giants like BASF in Ludwigshafen, were severely affected. At the peak of the crisis, as much as 70 percent of Europe's ammonia production capacity was offline.
The conflict in the Middle East has further highlighted the risks of relying on gas imports and fossil-fuel-based exports to sustain food systems. Roughly one-third of global fertiliser exports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical gateway highly vulnerable to disruption. As we reported in Iran War Disrupts Fertiliser Supply, Threatening Global Food Security, any blockage there would send shockwaves through global markets.
Europe's rapidly eroding manufacturing base now carries strategic consequences. It increases reliance on fertiliser imports from countries like Algeria, China, Egypt, Russia, and the United States. This creates a paradox: while European policymakers seek to reduce reliance on imported fossil fuels for sectors like buildings or road transport, the continent risks becoming increasingly dependent on imported nutrients produced elsewhere using the same fossil fuels.
Europe has been here before. Prior to the Haber-Bosch process, European agriculture relied heavily on nitrate imports from Chile, creating supply vulnerabilities that shaped geopolitical strategy. Today, the vulnerability is returning, driven by dependence on fossil fuel imports. Maintaining Europe's industrial leadership requires a new wave of innovation.
The Climate Imperative
There is also a climate imperative. Global ammonia production emits roughly 450 million tonnes of CO₂ each year, comparable to twice Spain's annual emissions. Cutting these emissions matters not only for climate targets but also for the long-term resilience of food production.
Europe has begun exploring low-carbon ammonia production using hydrogen generated from renewable electricity. Yet this pathway requires major new infrastructure for hydrogen production, transport, and storage. That is expensive and risks being too slow.
More promising technologies could change the equation entirely. Emerging processes aim to produce nitrogen-based fertilisers using nitrogen from air, water, and electricity. This can eliminate reliance on fossil gas and potentially bypass hydrogen altogether. The technical details differ, but the goal is the same: to use clean electricity to produce fertilisers in a way that is more reliable, less polluting, and ultimately cheaper.
If these technologies succeed at scale, they could allow fertiliser production in more locations, especially in regions outside Europe where renewable energy potential is even higher. Smaller and more flexible plants could complement existing large facilities, making supply chains more resilient and creating new industrial opportunities.
Protecting Jobs and Industrial Regions
This also matters for jobs. Europe's chemical industry supports hundreds of thousands of skilled workers, many of them in industrial regions that feel threatened by the energy transition. A new generation of fertiliser technologies could uplift and modernise this industrial base rather than simply see the industry migrate abroad.
As a first step, policymakers should support pilot plants and demonstration projects so that emerging technologies can move from the lab to commercial scale. Early deployment will not be cheap. But it is clear now more than ever that dependence on gas, with its recurring price shocks, is no longer viable. As renewable electricity expands and new production methods mature, costs are likely to fall. Europe already has strong capabilities in electrochemistry, engineering, and industrial manufacturing. It is time to use them.
With fertilisers, Europe's energy and food sovereignty are closely intertwined. By investing in innovation in fertiliser production, Europe can reduce exposure to volatile gas markets, strengthen its industrial base, and build a more resilient food system. It can also help drive the global transition to cleaner industrial processes. Europe's next Haber-Bosch moment is within reach.
