Europe's jet fuel supply outlook has brightened for the coming months, thanks to a surge in shipments from Asia and an expected seasonal drop in demand. Yet analysts warn that smaller airports remain exposed to potential shortages, even as major hubs stay well supplied.
Trade intelligence firm Kpler reports that nearly 900,000 tonnes of jet fuel from Asia are scheduled to reach Europe in the coming months. This influx should reduce the risk of widespread shortages, but prices are likely to stay elevated, according to George Shaw, Kpler's senior insight analyst for distillate markets.
“Jet fuel will likely be subject to higher prices, especially as it is deeply linked to the diesel market, which is becoming even tighter and experiencing record prices recently,” Shaw told Euronews.
Last week, the average European jet fuel price climbed to $207.56 (€176) per barrel, the highest of any region and 27.8% above the previous month's European average, according to the International Air Transport Association's fuel price monitor. That figure is a regional refinery-price assessment and may not reflect what individual airlines actually pay.
The price surge stems from higher crude oil costs and widening refinery margins—the gap between the price of crude and the finished fuel. Europe is particularly vulnerable because it historically relied heavily on jet fuel imports from the Middle East, which have been disrupted by production and shipping route problems. In response, the continent has turned increasingly to South Korea, Nigeria, and the United States.
These additional imports have so far prevented a physical shortage and should help Europe through the final quarter of the year, Shaw said. “Q4 should see less tightness than earlier in the year,” he added, noting that European aviation demand typically falls significantly in November. That seasonal decline reduces the likelihood of airlines or airports being unable to secure fuel, but it does not ease price pressure.
South Korea emerges as a key supplier
Kpler's latest monthly data show European jet fuel imports averaged approximately 672,000 barrels per day in September, including intra-European movements. South Korea, Nigeria, and the United States together accounted for around 60% of that total. Between July and September, about 1.31 million tonnes of jet fuel moved from the Asia-Pacific region to Europe, with South Korea supplying roughly 1.14 million tonnes—almost 87%.
Another 900,000 tonnes from South Korea and elsewhere in Asia are scheduled to arrive in the coming months, Shaw said. Although US imports have recently declined, American inventories remain relatively high, which should allow suppliers to respond if a shortage emerges as Europe's peak aviation season ends.
European refiners have also boosted production, and combined with extra supplies from the US and Nigeria, this “staved off a shortage,” Shaw said. The International Energy Agency reached a similar conclusion earlier this year, noting that refining capacity in Europe, Nigeria, and the US helped ease pressure on the aviation-fuel market.
Smaller airports remain vulnerable
Kpler identified the UK and France as the European markets most vulnerable to renewed disruption, given their heavy reliance on imports. UK imports averaged about 177,000 barrels per day in September, making it the largest destination, while France received around 73,000 barrels per day. The Netherlands took in approximately 118,000 barrels per day, though some of that fuel may have been redistributed through its storage and trading hub.
But securing fuel at the national level does not guarantee it reaches every airport. Aviation data firm Cirium warns that smaller airports would be the first to face shortages if deliveries were disrupted again. That scenario played out at Italy's Brindisi airport on 6 April, when commercial aircraft could no longer refuel normally because the local supplier fell short of agreed deliveries. Fuel was reserved for state aircraft, air ambulances, and search-and-rescue flights. Six other Italian airports rationed fuel that same week, limiting most aircraft to 2,000 litres—less than an hour's fuel for a Boeing 737.
Italy was not short of jet fuel overall: consumption between March and May was 14.5% higher than the same period last year. “Major hubs have avoided fuel shortages this year. Smaller airports have not,” said Mike Malik, chief industry officer at Cirium. Smaller airports tend to have fewer suppliers, less storage, and fewer alternative delivery routes, leaving regional and short-haul operators with less room to adapt.
How Europe filled the gap
Cirium estimates that European jet fuel imports from outside the region were 22% lower between March and May than during the same three months of 2025, a figure Kpler broadly supports. Yet consumption across the UK, Germany, France, Spain, and Italy fell by just 0.2% over that period.
Europe closed the gap in three ways: refineries increased the proportion of crude turned into jet fuel, traders secured extra cargoes from the US and Nigeria, and suppliers drew fuel from storage. “Europe closed the gap by running refineries differently and emptying its tanks. Neither of those works a second time,” Malik warned. These safeguards have weakened—refineries cannot keep boosting jet fuel production indefinitely, and drawing down stocks leaves less buffer for another disruption.
The IEA's September Oil Market Report said continuing disruption in the Gulf and around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait was preventing oil from flowing normally, which could keep pressure on fuel markets. For now, Europe appears to have enough jet fuel to avoid a widespread crisis, but the margin for error remains thin, especially for smaller airports that lack the resilience of major hubs.
