The Democratic victory in Tuesday's US midterm elections has sent European capitals into a familiar but anxious calculation: what does a diminished president mean for the continent? With the House and Senate now controlled by the opposition, Donald Trump faces a hostile Congress that can block much of his domestic agenda. But as EU officials see it, that may push him toward foreign policy, where he retains more freedom to act.
One EU diplomat in Brussels put it bluntly: “He will be more a ‘mad dog’ than a ‘lame duck’.” The same official cautioned that expectations remain low: “The mood is quite realistic: no one expects the current challenges will disappear.”
Ukraine: hope and caution
For Ukraine, the calculus is more nuanced. A Democratic Congress is generally seen as more hawkish on Russia and more supportive of Kyiv. EU diplomats hope this will translate into smoother and faster delivery of military aid, including Patriot air defence interceptors and other critical systems. “We hope this change will result in a smoother delivery of military aid to Ukraine,” one diplomat told European Pulse.
Finnish officials, speaking from Helsinki, echoed that optimism. They noted that Democrats are traditionally more open to European concerns and that the scale of the victory could constrain Trump’s use of executive orders, which have often caught allies off guard. One foreign policy official even suggested the results might trigger a reshuffle inside the US administration, possibly leading to the departure of Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth—a move that could unlock the transfer of Patriot interceptors.
Meanwhile, a NATO-led working-level meeting is taking place in Brussels today, with representatives from the United States, Germany, France, the UK, and NATO officials, including the chief of staff to Secretary General Mark Rutte. Ukraine’s ambassador is also present. The talks are a prelude to next week’s trilateral meeting in Abu Dhabi between Ukrainian, Russian, and US representatives. European officials familiar with the discussions are cautious but hope for progress on prisoner exchanges and protecting energy infrastructure.
Enlargement report cards and a Georgian warning
On Wednesday, the European Commission issued its annual enlargement scorecards for candidate countries. Serbia, Georgia, and Turkey came under heightened scrutiny as Brussels increasingly conditions progress on alignment with EU foreign and security policy. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas announced that foreign ministers will hold a “deep dive” in January on new measures against Georgia, aimed at halting Tbilisi’s democratic backsliding. The announcement came a day after Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze failed to outline a path to mend ties with Brussels in a tense interview with European Pulse’s EU Editor Maria Tadeo.
Berlin and Brussels at odds over 'associate membership'
A separate clash is unfolding between German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen over the meaning of “associate membership.” Merz, who first coined the term, wants it applied to Ukraine, offering Kyiv a taste of EU benefits before full accession. Von der Leyen, however, envisions it as a premium partnership for countries like Canada, short of membership. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has embraced the idea and set June 2027 as the deadline to finalise the framework. He will travel to Brussels to push it forward.
“The Merz vs von der Leyen duel over ‘associate membership’ has enthralled the EU bubble,” said Jorge Liboreiro, reporting from Berlin. “Some praise von der Leyen for thinking bold and big, others complain that she has, once again, overstepped and made a promise that it’s not for her to keep. Of course, the fact that both leaders are German and hail from the same party makes the clash even more explosive. At one point, something will have to give. You can’t have a leader of a G7 economy come to Brussels and leave empty-handed.”
Poland’s constitutional crisis and a Visegrád summit
Jorge has since moved to Warsaw, where a constitutional crisis pits Prime Minister Donald Tusk against President Karol Nawrocki. European Parliament President Roberta Metsola will be in the Polish capital today, meeting separately with both leaders. The crisis will also cast a shadow over a summit of the Visegrád Four presidents in Trenčín, Slovakia, which will be attended for the first time by Ursula von der Leyen. The gathering offers her a chance to exchange views with Nawrocki, after the Commission appeared to side with Tusk’s government earlier this week, saying the Sejm has the right to choose judges.
The presidents will discuss energy, EU enlargement, and European security in the context of the war in Ukraine. According to local media, Czech President Petr Pavel will argue for European participation in any peace talks aimed at ending the conflict.
Green Deal retreat
In a separate development, EU lawmakers on Wednesday backed a relaxation of the 2035 car emissions target, reducing the required cut from 100% to 87.5%. The move, spearheaded by the centre-right European People’s Party, marks a striking reversal from 2023, when the EU agreed to effectively end sales of new petrol and diesel cars by that date. The decision reflects growing pressure on Brussels to give the struggling automotive industry more flexibility in its transition to electric vehicles.
As Europe digests the midterm results, the overarching sentiment is one of vigilance. A weakened Trump may be less predictable, but the continent’s leaders are also aware that the transatlantic relationship will remain vital—whatever the political weather in Washington.
