Kurt Volker, who served as the United States' permanent representative to NATO under George W. Bush, has offered a blunt assessment of why Washington is holding back Patriot air-defence systems that Kyiv has been requesting for months. In an interview with Euronews, Volker said the delay is less about technical readiness and more about electoral arithmetic in the United States.
According to Volker, the Trump administration is wary of opening a second military front in the Middle East just weeks before the November midterm elections. The president, he argues, fears that a confrontation with Iran—whether through renewed strikes or a tightening of sanctions—could unsettle voters and cost Republicans control of Congress. "He doesn't want a war with Iran right now," Volker said. "That would be a huge distraction and could hurt him politically."
A familiar pattern of hesitation
Volker's comments echo concerns already circulating among European allies. Several NATO members have privately complained that Washington's decision-making on Ukraine is increasingly shaped by domestic political calendars rather than strategic necessity. The delay in Patriot deliveries has been a particular sore point, with officials in Berlin and Warsaw pressing for faster action.
The former ambassador also suggested that the administration might be preparing to resume hostilities against Iran after the midterms, once the electoral risk has passed. "If they win, or even if they lose, they may feel freer to act," he noted. Such a move would have immediate consequences for European security, given the EU's continued efforts to salvage the nuclear deal and maintain stability in the Gulf.
European stakes
For European capitals, the timing of US military support to Ukraine is not an abstract question. The war in Ukraine has driven energy prices to record highs, fuelled inflation across the eurozone, and forced governments from Helsinki to Lisbon to rethink their defence budgets. Any further delay in delivering advanced air-defence systems could leave Ukrainian cities exposed to Russian missile barrages, prolonging the conflict and deepening Europe's economic pain.
Volker's remarks also feed into a broader anxiety about the reliability of US commitments under a possible second Trump term. The historian's warning that Trump might try to overturn election results if he loses in 2024 has already raised questions in Brussels about the durability of democratic norms in Washington. If the US president is willing to use foreign policy as a bargaining chip for domestic gain, European leaders may need to plan for a more transactional relationship.
Midterm calculus
The midterm elections, scheduled for 8 November, are widely seen as a referendum on Trump's first two years in office. Polls suggest that Democrats could regain control of the House of Representatives, and possibly the Senate, which would severely constrain Trump's legislative agenda and open the door to investigations. Volker believes that the president is acutely aware of this risk and is tailoring his foreign policy decisions accordingly.
"He is very focused on the midterms," Volker said. "He thinks that if he can avoid a new war, he can keep his base happy and maybe win over some independents." The former ambassador added that the administration's recent rollback of methane regulations, justified as a consumer-friendly move, is part of the same electoral strategy.
European observers, however, are less convinced that delaying military aid to Ukraine will play well with voters. A recent poll by the European Council on Foreign Relations found that a majority of Europeans support stronger sanctions against Russia, even at the cost of higher energy prices. If the US is seen as wavering in its support for Kyiv, it could undermine transatlantic unity and embolden Moscow.
What happens next
Volker's comments come as the Pentagon reviews its weapons inventories and weighs the risks of sending Patriot systems to Ukraine. The systems, which are designed to intercept ballistic missiles and aircraft, are considered a game-changer for Ukraine's air defence, but they require extensive training and maintenance. Some US officials have argued that the systems are too complex for Ukrainian forces to operate effectively in the short term.
Nevertheless, pressure is mounting from both Kyiv and European allies. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly appealed for Patriots, calling them "the only effective shield against Russian terror." In Brussels, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell has urged Washington to accelerate deliveries, warning that every day of delay costs lives.
For now, the White House has not commented on Volker's remarks. But the former ambassador's analysis offers a rare insider perspective on how electoral politics can shape military assistance. As the midterms approach, European leaders will be watching closely to see whether the Patriot missiles finally move—or whether they remain a bargaining chip in a president's fight for political survival.
