The disruption of energy markets following the outbreak of war in the Middle East has cost four major European economies nearly €41 billion in additional fossil fuel imports, according to a new analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA). The report underscores how vulnerable the European Union remains to global oil and gas price shocks, even as it accelerates its clean energy transition.
Between March and August 2026, the Netherlands recorded an estimated €11.5 billion in extra costs, Italy €12.7 billion, France €10.8 billion, and Spain €8.8 billion. These four countries alone absorbed almost €41 billion in unforeseen expenditure without importing any additional volumes of energy—the price surge alone drove the increase. Across the 170 countries examined, 134 paid more for diesel than markets had anticipated before the conflict began.
The war, launched by the United States and Israel against Iran on 28 February, sent shockwaves through global energy markets. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices jumped by 60% in the Atlantic basin and 75% in the Pacific, while diesel and petrol prices rose by 59%. Worldwide, the crisis has added more than €282 billion to fossil fuel import bills, with oil alone accounting for €140 billion of that increase.
For Europe, the diesel shock is particularly acute. The bloc relies heavily on diesel for freight, farming, and industry, meaning higher fuel costs ripple through supply chains and ultimately push up the price of goods for consumers. The report notes that the United States and Norway became the largest suppliers of both petroleum oils and LNG to the EU in the first quarter of the year, stepping in to offset the loss of Middle Eastern supplies.
Clean energy as a shield
Yet the CREA analysis also offers a counterpoint: Europe's investment in renewable energy is paying off as a security asset. Clean power capacity installed in the bloc since 2020 saved importing countries €36 billion in fossil fuel purchases during the first five months of the crisis. Every unit of gas, oil, or coal displaced by clean electricity was a unit that did not have to be bought at wartime prices.
“The best way to protect against high oil prices is to get off the black stuff as quickly as possible,” said Luke Wickenden, energy analyst at CREA. “Oil and gas prices have long proven to be an Achilles’ heel for both household finances and the global economy as a whole. Meanwhile, countries that invested in clean energy after past energy crises have saved billions of dollars.”
Renewables and electrification are no longer only about cutting emissions, the report argues; they are a hedge against geopolitical energy shocks. Countries with a proportionally larger supply of clean power and lower fossil fuel demand are less exposed when international fuel prices spike.
Spain offers a telling example. “Renewables saved Spain billions, but oil-dependent transport, aviation and industry still left every person carrying an additional gross fossil fuel import cost of €181,” said Isaac Levi, CREA's Europe-Russia policy and energy analysis team lead. “Spain’s experience shows that clean electricity must now be matched by faster electrification across the wider economy.”
The findings come as European and international groups press European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to deliver a comprehensive fossil fuel exit plan. In a letter signed by more than 100 organisations and led by Climate Action Network Europe, they urge her to use her State of the Union address on 16 September to announce an independent, science-based report with one clear objective: “to make this fossil fuel crisis Europe’s last.”
“None of this is accidental. Fossil fuel dependence has repeatedly undermined Europe's prosperity and constrained its ability to act in the world. As long as Europe relies on fossil fuels, its citizens remain exposed to price shocks and geopolitical decisions made elsewhere,” the letter reads. The signatories argue that Europe is paying twice for its dependence—first through higher energy costs, and then through the escalating damage caused by climate change.
The proposal echoes the approach of the Draghi report, calling for a strategy that makes renewables, efficiency, grids, and clean flexibility the main drivers, while redirecting EU and national spending away from investments that prolong fossil fuel dependence. Some EU governments are already exploring fiscal measures, with six member states seeking a windfall tax on oil majors amid the crisis.
Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz continue, with Iran and Oman proposing a temporary shipping corridor and Qatar pushing for renewed US-Iran talks. But the CREA report suggests that for Europe, the long-term answer lies not in securing new supply routes but in reducing demand altogether.
