Around seven million Israelis are eligible to vote today in a legislative election that could redefine the country's trajectory after three years of war. The contest pits incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, leader of the right-wing Likud party, against a coalition of rivals headed by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, whose two sons were killed in combat. Netanyahu has dominated Israeli politics for two decades, and another victory would signal enduring confidence from his base despite the security failures of October 7, 2023.
Eisenkot, who leads the Yashar party, has made accountability the centrepiece of his campaign. “What he is offering is an eternal war,” he said in a radio interview, directly challenging Netanyahu's approach. While both men reject a two-state solution and advocate a hard line toward Iran, Eisenkot's pitch is simpler: he is not Netanyahu. The opposition leader has promised to establish a state commission of inquiry into the October 7 attacks, a step the current government has resisted.
Yossi Mekelberg, a senior consulting fellow at Chatham House's Middle East and North Africa Programme, told Europe Today that a government led by the opposition would bring meaningful change. “The more the current government rejects the idea, the more people are suspicious that they have something to hide,” he said. The election's outcome will be closely watched in Brussels, where the EU maintains an Association Agreement with Israel dating back to 2000, covering trade, political dialogue, and cultural cooperation.
EU-Israel relations at a crossroads
The bloc's engagement with Israel has been strained since the Gaza war began. Amnesty International argues that the EU and its member states have a “clear obligation” to prevent trade and investments that support Israel's occupation of Palestinian territories, citing the International Court of Justice's advisory opinion from July 2024. Despite repeated attempts, the European Commission has failed to ban trade with illegal Israeli settlements. Relations between EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas and her Israeli counterpart Gideon Sa'ar remain tense.
Diplomats in Brussels are cautious about predicting a shift. One EU insider told me there is “some hope” that a new Israeli administration, regardless of its composition, could find common ground with European capitals. The election takes place just over 3,000 kilometres from Brussels, but its implications for regional stability and EU foreign policy are profound.
Meanwhile, a separate diplomatic storm is brewing. According to a Wall Street Journal report, US officials have floated former Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán as a candidate for UN Secretary-General. The proposal, which could involve a joint US-China-Russia bid, has already drawn sharp criticism. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said Orbán would “put to good use the masterful veto and blackmail skills he has developed over years of derailing major EU decisions.”
Ukraine's urgent needs and Europe's response
Defence ministers from France, Germany, Italy, Poland, and the UK met in Paris on Monday to discuss support for Ukraine and the escalating conflict with Iran. NATO Deputy Secretary General Radmila Shekerinska stressed that “all allies” must “dig deep and do more — especially with air and missile defence” for Ukraine. “We need to do it now, because every night the pressure from Russia is felt in almost every Ukrainian city,” she said.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been waiting “nearly a month” for US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth to approve Patriot missiles and other weapons. Despite ongoing talks with other countries, Kyiv remains vulnerable to relentless Russian aerial attacks, including jet-powered drones. EU efforts to secure interceptor missile pledges have also stalled.
The situation is complicated by US President Donald Trump's shifting alliances, exemplified by a controversial diesel deal that caught Zelenskyy and European allies off guard. Restrictions on Starlink technology, owned by Trump ally Elon Musk, further signal waning support from Washington. Retired US Army Lieutenant General Ben Hodges told Euronews that Trump “was never going to support Ukraine.”
European officials are now exploring ways to fill a funding gap of roughly €70 billion for 2027 to sustain support for Ukraine. The European Commission is also set to unveil new climate rules on Tuesday, requiring EU governments to clarify responsibility for protecting citizens from climate disasters. Climate Action Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra warned that the world is heading toward a temporary or prolonged overshoot of the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C limit, making adaptation essential.
As Israel votes, Europe watches with a mix of caution and hope. The outcome could reshape not only Israeli politics but also the EU's ability to engage constructively in the Middle East. For now, the continent's leaders are focused on the immediate challenges: securing Ukraine's skies, preparing for a hotter future, and navigating a volatile geopolitical landscape.
