Russia may be preparing a false-flag operation against critical infrastructure in the Baltic states using drones made to look Ukrainian, according to Lithuania's defence minister, Robertas Kaunas. Speaking at a press briefing, Kaunas said such a scenario is the most realistic current threat, as Moscow seeks to undermine international support for Ukraine.
“We are talking about a potential false-flag operation where a fake Ukrainian drone could be used,” Kaunas said. “That’s the most realistic current scenario.”
The warning centres on the possibility that Russia could assemble a functional drone from wreckage of Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles that have been shot down or crashed on Russian territory. Ukraine has conducted numerous long-range drone strikes against military and energy targets inside Russia, and many of those drones are intercepted or fail, leaving debris in Russian hands.
“Russia is capable of assembling them into a functional device, and there is a theoretical possibility that such a device … could be used in a false-flag operation,” Kaunas added.
Heightened security around key energy sites
Although Kaunas stressed that there is no indication an attack is imminent, he said Moscow is actively planning such scenarios. The warning follows recent reports in Lithuanian media that the country's military intelligence believes Russia is weighing strikes on Baltic infrastructure using Ukrainian-made drones.
In response, Lithuania has tightened security around critical energy installations, including the Klaipėda liquefied natural gas terminal, the LitPol Link electricity interconnector with Poland near Alytus, a major transformer substation in the Alytus district, and the Kruonis pumped-storage hydroelectric plant.
The Baltic nation of fewer than 3 million people has experienced several drone incursions in recent years. Earlier this year, Lithuanian authorities concluded that drones that crashed on its territory were Ukrainian aircraft that had been diverted from their intended routes by Russian electronic warfare systems while carrying out strikes inside Russia. Last year, two Russian drones crossed into Lithuanian airspace from Belarus before crashing.
An intentional strike against critical infrastructure would mark a significant escalation. Kaunas argued that the Kremlin needs such a provocation because Russian society is beginning to question “why there are fuel shortages, why warehouses are burning and why Ukrainian drones are flying over Russia.”
“In order to preserve its grip on power and maintain the image of victory, the Russian regime is looking for alternative ways to escalate the situation,” he said.
One of Moscow's objectives, Kaunas argued, would be to sow divisions within NATO and reduce Western military support for Kyiv. The warning comes as the alliance continues to bolster its eastern flank, with a German brigade deploying to Lithuania as a cornerstone of deterrence.
Recent events have underscored the fragility of the region. Overnight Russian strikes killed 15 in Kyiv, and Ukraine has struck Russian refineries in response to attacks on civilian areas. Meanwhile, the EU has channelled €1.4 billion from frozen Russian assets to Ukraine, highlighting the stakes in the ongoing conflict.
Kaunas's remarks reflect growing concern in the Baltics that Russia may resort to unconventional tactics to destabilise the region and fracture Western unity. While the immediate threat remains theoretical, the defensive measures taken by Lithuania signal a high level of vigilance.
