Brazil's political heavyweight Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has formally launched his bid for a fourth presidential term, setting the stage for an October election that echoes the polarized clashes of recent years. At 80, the leftist veteran is casting himself as the guardian of national sovereignty, a message sharpened by the tariff threats coming from Washington under Donald Trump's administration.
The Workers' Party (PT) confirmed Lula's candidacy at its national convention in São Paulo on Sunday, with the former metalworker and union leader seeking to extend a political career that has spanned four decades. His running mate is again Geraldo Alckmin of the Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB), repeating the ticket that narrowly defeated Jair Bolsonaro in 2022.
This time, however, the opposition is led not by the former president but by his eldest son, Flávio Bolsonaro. The 45-year-old senator stepped into the role after his father was convicted and placed under house arrest for attempting to overturn the 2022 election result. The younger Bolsonaro, who represents the Liberal Party, has yet to announce a formal coalition, though he has received public backing from Argentina's Javier Milei and Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu.
A campaign under the shadow of Trump
The Bolsonaro family has found an ally in the White House. Trump, pursuing what some call the "Donroe doctrine" of assertive external influence, has imposed tariffs on Brazilian goods, citing unfair trade practices that Brasília denies. The measures were eventually lifted after diplomatic efforts, but the threat of a new trade war looms large over the campaign.
Lula has responded by framing the election as a defense of Brazil's independence. "In Brazil, we do not accept anyone meddling where they are not invited," he said, a clear rebuke to foreign interference. His campaign will lean heavily on his record as the country's most influential political figure, reminding voters of his two earlier terms from 2003 to 2010 and his comeback after a prison sentence that was later annulled.
The race is expected to be tight. A recent Datafolha poll puts Lula at 48% of voting intentions, with Flávio Bolsonaro at 43%. In 2022, Lula beat Jair Bolsonaro by the narrowest of margins, and the country remains deeply divided.
Economic gains, but security worries
Lula's administration can point to solid economic growth and record employment, yet many families are struggling with the cost of living, and the budget deficit is widening. Security is another Achilles' heel: tens of millions of Brazilians live in poor neighborhoods controlled by organized crime, and the issue tops voters' concerns.
Corruption allegations also hang over both camps. Flávio Bolsonaro is under investigation for allegedly soliciting money from a banker accused of financial fraud to fund a film about his father. Meanwhile, an inquiry has been opened into one of Lula's sons, nicknamed "Lulinha," over suspected corruption and influence peddling.
The campaign has taken on a familiar, almost déjà vu quality, with the Bolsonaro name once again at the center. Michelle Bolsonaro, the former first lady, has been nominated as a Senate candidate, despite a recent feud with her stepson Flávio over influence in Brazil's conservative movement.
Beyond Brazil's borders, the election is being watched as a bellwether for Latin America, where the right has been gaining ground. In Peru, Keiko Fujimori's recent victory marked the return of Fujimorismo, while in Colombia, the ultra-right Abelardo de la Espriella won the presidency and has promised to break ties with Cuba and Nicaragua. These shifts, along with the US review of European troop deployments, signal a broader geopolitical realignment that Lula's camp hopes to counter with a message of sovereignty and social justice.
As the campaign heats up, the world will be watching whether Lula can defy his age and the political headwinds to secure another term, or whether the Bolsonaro name will return to the presidency. For now, the polls suggest a photo finish.
