Warsaw has issued a stark warning to its European partners: do not negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine without fully accounting for the security interests of Eastern Europe, the region most exposed to the conflict's fallout.
“The last thing we want is Western Europe dealing with Russia, over the heads of the east Europeans,” Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski told journalists in Warsaw on Thursday. “You cannot leave Eastern Europe and Scandinavia out of the conversation. We are about 120 million people. Finland borders Russia; Norway borders Russia; the Baltics border Russia; and Poland borders Russia and Ukraine.”
For years, Eastern European countries urged their Western counterparts to treat Russia primarily as a security threat. Those warnings were largely ignored even after Russia's illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, and only gained traction after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Prime Minister Donald Tusk, speaking alongside Sikorski, cautioned European leaders to be “very careful” about Russian President Vladimir Putin's “real intentions” and “realistic” about the US-led diplomatic process. “In winter, Putin might have fewer incentives to get a deal,” Tusk said, noting that Russia has intensified airstrikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure to inflict suffering during the colder months.
Hybrid threats on the border
Moscow has also stepped up hybrid attacks against Ukraine's staunchest supporters. Earlier this week, Poland launched a large-scale operation along its border with the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad to thwart possible acts of sabotage. “According to our sources and those of allies, Russia's threat will continue to grow, and we can expect an escalation. Of course, the first targets are the Baltic states and Poland,” Tusk said, adding that his country was “well prepared” for all scenarios.
“It's very difficult to differentiate hybrid war, cyber war and this provocation close to Russia and Kaliningrad. We can see all those things happening at the same time,” he added.
Warsaw expects little from the US-led negotiations unless Putin demonstrates a genuine willingness to end the war. Washington's approach of offering Moscow economic deals as diplomatic incentives has unsettled European allies, and a reported plan to restart Russian gas flows to Europe has proved particularly controversial.
Polish Energy Minister Miłosz Motyka called the idea “absurd,” warning that a return to Russian gas would make Europe vulnerable again to Putin's blackmail, run counter to US economic interests, and further damage transatlantic relations. “If someone is deluding themselves by thinking they can buy time by buying Russian gas, it's a very short-sighted and a very expensive game to play,” he said, pushing back against right-wing parties in Europe that demand a comeback to Russian fuels. “We're going to stick to our positions. We're not going to change it regardless of who's in power.”
Europe's fragmented response
Warsaw's warning comes ahead of the resumption of trilateral talks between Ukraine, Russia, and the US at a technical level next week in Abu Dhabi. This was preceded by a 90-minute phone call between Finnish President Alexander Stubb, Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre, and Putin.
France, Germany, and the UK—the so-called E3—along with the European Commission and NATO, are ready to join multilateral talks after Abu Dhabi. The same formation met this week with US representatives to advance work on security guarantees and post-war recovery for Ukraine.
These developments signal Europe's willingness to speak directly with Russia to find a settled solution to a war poised to redefine the continent's security architecture. But the overture has infuriated Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who sent a scathing letter to European Council President António Costa complaining about the “disarray” in formats and demanding the appointment of a unifying envoy.
“We are doing nothing but serving the interests of those who want this war to continue. And I think it is unacceptable, given that human lives and the future of our security are at stake,” Meloni wrote. “We are not willing to accept that commitments be negotiated, in the absence of a mandate, that our nation will then be called upon to assume.”
Costa agreed to put the issue on the table at next week's informal summit in Dublin, Ireland, which will take place right after the Abu Dhabi meeting. Asked about Meloni's letter, Sikorski expressed his agreement. “We need to have a legitimate representation of Europe in the process because we pay for this war. We have a much bigger stake in the war because it's our security, particularly when the Russians go back to the ultimatums of 2021,” he said, referring to the demands sent by Moscow to NATO before the war. “The question is which body or which format is the right one.”
Sikorski, like Costa, pointed to the framework laid out by the Treaty of Lisbon, which says the common foreign policy must be led by either the European Council president (Costa) or the High Representative (Kaja Kallas). “The Treaty of Lisbon says we have a united foreign policy: once you go outside of the treaty, it gets very tricky,” Sikorski said. “My preference would be to stick to the treaty and maybe include the British. But we are in the process.”
The US, which organises the talks, appears to have taken a preference for the European Commission, which oversees funding for Ukraine and sanctions on Russia. Meanwhile, Poland continues to face spying and sabotage threats from Moscow, and recent incidents such as the Baltic cable sabotage underline the region's vulnerability. As the diplomatic process unfolds, Warsaw insists that Eastern Europe's voice must be heard—not as an afterthought, but as a central pillar of any lasting settlement.
