Less than a week after Donald Trump left Beijing, Vladimir Putin is set to arrive in the Chinese capital for a two-day official visit beginning Tuesday evening. The back-to-back trips by the American and Russian leaders highlight China’s increasingly central role in global diplomacy — and raise questions in European capitals about Beijing’s strategic priorities.
The Kremlin has framed Putin’s visit as a routine step in the “privileged partnership” between Moscow and Beijing, with talks scheduled for 20 May. Yuri Ushakov, Putin’s foreign policy aide, insisted on Monday that the timing was coincidental, noting that the date had been agreed in early February, while Trump’s trip was moved forward from late March to mid-May due to the Iranian situation.
“There is no link between Trump’s and Putin’s visits,” Ushakov told reporters. “We usually agree the agenda for talks with the Chinese in advance.”
Yet the juxtaposition is hard to ignore. Trump’s visit, which included meetings with Xi Jinping and a delegation of more than a dozen US business leaders, was widely seen as underwhelming. No major breakthroughs emerged on trade, Ukraine, or the conflict with Iran — issues that are now expected to dominate Putin’s agenda.
Russia’s Growing Dependence on China
Putin’s delegation is notably larger and more senior than Trump’s. It includes five deputy prime ministers, eight ministers, several regional governors, the head of Russia’s central bank, and business representatives. Among them is Kirill Dmitriev, head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, who has also become the Kremlin’s key negotiator with the Trump administration on ending the war in Ukraine.
The composition of the delegation reflects Moscow’s increasing economic reliance on Beijing since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Western sanctions have pushed Russia to pivot eastward, with China becoming its largest trade partner and a crucial source of technology, finance, and diplomatic cover.
For European policymakers, the deepening Sino-Russian axis is a growing concern. Brussels has repeatedly warned that Chinese economic and diplomatic support helps sustain Russia’s war effort. The EU is weighing tariffs and supplier rules to counter Chinese exports that may be routed through Russia, while also trying to maintain unity among member states.
Xi’s Balancing Act: Taiwan Over Ukraine
While Putin will seek continued Chinese backing, Xi Jinping’s primary focus remains Taiwan. The timing of both visits may reflect a broader geopolitical bargaining strategy. After his trip, Trump appeared to cast doubt on continued US support for Taiwan, despite approving a record $11 billion (€9.5 billion) arms package in December. “It’s a very good negotiating chip for us, frankly,” Trump said, referring to the deal.
That remark has alarmed Taipei. Taiwan’s president has defended the arms purchases, insisting the island’s security is not a bargaining chip. For Beijing, any wavering in US commitment to Taiwan strengthens its hand — and may make Xi less willing to pressure Putin on Ukraine.
European diplomats in Brussels and national capitals are watching closely. The EU has no formal role in the Taiwan Strait, but the stability of the region is critical for global trade and supply chains. Any shift in US policy could have ripple effects across European economies.
Putin’s visit also comes amid heightened tensions over Iran. Trump recently halted an attack plan after Gulf mediation, but warned of a full assault if talks fail. China, as a major buyer of Iranian oil and a diplomatic partner of Tehran, could play a mediating role — but only if it chooses to.
For now, Beijing appears content to let both Washington and Moscow court its favor. The question for European capitals is whether China will use its leverage to push for peace in Ukraine, or simply deepen its partnership with Russia at the expense of transatlantic interests.
