For Vladimir Putin, Victory Day on 9 May has long been the Kremlin's most important public holiday, a chance to project military might and historical continuity. This year, however, the parade on Red Square will be a notably subdued affair. Not only have military vehicles and cadets been cancelled due to what Moscow calls the 'current operational situation,' but the guest list is the shortest in modern Russian history.
Only two foreign leaders are confirmed: Laos President Thongloun Sisoulith and Malaysia's Supreme Ruler Sultan Ibrahim. The Kremlin insists that Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico will attend, but Fico himself has said he plans to skip the event. Slovakia's Deputy Foreign Minister Rastislav Chovanec confirmed Fico's absence and even suggested he might use a separate visit to Moscow to pass messages from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to Putin—a scenario that likely irks the Kremlin more than a simple no-show.
Former Allies Stay Away
Perhaps the most telling absence is that of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. Armenia, long considered Russia's closest ally in the South Caucasus, recently hosted the European Political Community summit in Yerevan, drawing dozens of Western leaders. Pashinyan's decision to skip the Moscow parade, coupled with his warm reception of Zelenskyy in Yerevan, signals a decisive shift in Yerevan's foreign policy. The Kremlin's irritation was palpable, especially after images of Pashinyan and French President Emmanuel Macron singing Charles Aznavour's La Bohème went viral.
Belarus's Aliaksandr Lukashenka will attend, as he always does. But his status as a 'foreign leader' is questionable: neither the EU nor the US recognise him as Belarus's legitimate president. His presence is a reminder of Russia's dwindling circle of reliable allies.
From the occupied territories, Moscow-installed authorities from Abkhazia and South Ossetia—Badra Gunba and Alan Gagloyev—will be in the stands. Both regions are internationally recognised as part of Georgia, and their inclusion underscores the Kremlin's reliance on proxies rather than sovereign states. A delegation from the Bosnian entity of Republika Srpska, including former president Milorad Dodik, is also expected. Dodik, a Bosnian Serb nationalist banned from office at home, has been dubbed 'Laktašenko' by Balkan pundits—a portmanteau of his hometown Laktaši and Lukashenka's name, reflecting his tractor-driving, authoritarian leanings.
From Grandeur to Isolation
The contrast with past parades is stark. In 1995, US President Bill Clinton, UK Prime Minister John Major, and Canadian Prime Minister Jean Chrétien attended. In 2005, George W. Bush joined leaders from France and Germany. Even Angela Merkel was on Red Square in 2010. But after Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Western leaders stopped coming. The guest list has shrunk each year, and 2026 marks a new low.
The Kremlin claims it deliberately sent no invitations this year, with Putin aide Yuri Ushakov stating that foreign leaders decided to attend 'on their own initiative.' But the absence of former allies like Armenia, and the presence of only two non-European leaders, tells a different story. The parade has become a small, intimate gathering of the isolated, a far cry from the grand display of power it once was.
For Europe, the sparse attendance is a clear signal of Russia's diplomatic marginalisation. As the war in Ukraine grinds on, with Russian strikes killing civilians and EU sanctions straining the Russian economy, Moscow's ability to rally international support is at an all-time low. Even its former Soviet republics are drifting away, seeking closer ties with the EU and the West.
