For Ukraine, the last few days have revived the uneasy memory of the Oval Office confrontation: public hectoring of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, accusations that Kyiv is blocking peace, and a creeping fear that Washington's goal is not a negotiated settlement—let alone a just one—but Ukraine's capitulation. The pressure campaign has been relentless, and it is not letting up.
On Sunday, US President Donald Trump surprised everyone by announcing that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to an immediate ceasefire on attacks against energy infrastructure. There was one small problem: at least one of the parties seemed unaware of the deal. “If President Trump negotiated it with Putin, please tell us when the ceasefire begins,” Zelenskyy said in response, adding that Ukraine was ready. Moscow, too, appeared not to have received the memo. Shortly after Trump's announcement, Russian forces struck a thermal power plant in Kharkiv, and continued targeting other energy facilities overnight.
The ceasefire announcement came on the heels of another unilateral move that rattled European allies. On Friday, Trump revealed a deal with Vladimir Putin to ease sanctions on Russian diesel exports, without consulting Ukrainian or European negotiators who were meeting in Miami. The move is widely seen as an attempt to lower diesel and gasoline prices ahead of the US midterm elections in November. Zelenskyy was blunt, calling the deal “weak” and warning it would hand Putin “billions” more to fund the war. Trump responded by telling Zelenskyy he “better damn well stop” striking Russian refineries, and went further, suggesting Ukraine needed a “new leader.” Putin's leadership, notably, was not up for discussion.
There is an irony in Trump's approach: publicly berating Zelenskyy has not weakened him at home—quite the opposite. European leaders have rallied around the Ukrainian president, and sources say Zelenskyy is expected to join them at the EU summit in Brussels on Thursday and Friday.
EU scrambles to close ranks
The Trump-Putin diesel deal and the subsequent energy ceasefire will dominate discussions today in Brussels and Luxembourg, where EU foreign ministers are gathering. Once again, the bloc finds itself trying to present a united front behind Zelenskyy while pushing back—with carefully calibrated criticism—against Trump's Russia-friendly diplomacy.
The US Treasury's sanctions waiver, which allows Russian diesel sales until April 2027, has particularly angered Europeans, who see their own sanctions regime being undermined by Washington's sudden decisions. Notably, most vessels Russia uses to trade refined oil products are subject to the G7 price cap of $100 per barrel.
Foreign ministers are expected to signal that their pressure campaign on Moscow will continue unabated, with plans to formally blacklist more than 1,600 people and companies accused of enabling the war—a record number in a single round. “We are of course continuing our path,” said EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas upon arriving in Luxembourg. “Our message is clear. If we want to end this war, the only way we can do this is putting more pressure on Russia, and we would call on the US to put the sanctions in place so we can finish this war.”
Russia's all-out escalation has forced EU officials to admit that their multibillion-euro support for Ukraine will fall short next year. There are no easy solutions, and the bloc is scrambling to find new funding mechanisms.
The mounting tensions have also raised the stakes at the Warsaw Security Conference, which kicks off this morning. Zelenskyy is expected to address delegates from Kyiv. Our chief EU editor, Maria Tadeo, reports from the Polish capital that security is tight and the mood tense, after Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said on Sunday that a man had been arrested on suspicion of plotting to assassinate him and his defence minister.
Budget deadlock deepens
Meanwhile, a new proposal to trim the EU's next long-term budget—the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF)—tabled by Ireland over the weekend has met immediate resistance from the so-called frugal countries, which are demanding a much smaller spending pot. “The size of the new proposal is not a basis for agreement. The EU budget must be affordable for those who bear the brunt of financing it,” German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said in a statement on Saturday.
Dutch Finance Minister Eelco Heinen was even more direct: “The Netherlands cannot accept this proposal. At this rate, there will be no deal by the end of the year.” Sweden also rejected the proposal, insisting that the “overall volume” needs to come down.
Ireland, which currently holds the rotating presidency of the Council of the EU, pitched €141 billion in cuts to the previous proposal in an attempt to appease the frugals. The country's EU affairs minister, Thomas Byrne, described it as a “compromise designed to act as a catalyst” for wrapping up negotiations by the end of this year—a prospect that now looks increasingly remote.
EU leaders will tackle the budget issue at the Brussels summit on Thursday and Friday, with European Council President António Costa pushing for a swift compromise. There is a political push to finalise the budget before the end of 2026, to avoid talks being derailed by elections in major economies like France, Italy and Poland next year. But with the frugals digging in, a deal seems far from certain.
