The 2026 US midterms delivered one of the most decisive defeats in modern American political history. Democrats swept both chambers of Congress and won governorships across the country, a clear rebuke to Donald Trump's administration. Though the president was not on the ballot, voters sent a damning message about his deeply unpopular agenda.
For Europe, the immediate question is whether a weakened Trump becomes a more dangerous one. The EU has spent the past two years absorbing shocks from Washington over security, trade and energy. Now, with his domestic agenda facing stiff resistance in Congress, Trump may turn to foreign policy—where he retains more room to manoeuvre—to reclaim the initiative and shape his legacy.
“He will be more a ‘mad dog’ than a ‘lame duck,’” an EU diplomat told Euronews, using the traditional term for presidents facing a hostile Congress. “The mood is quite realistic: no one expects the current challenges will disappear.”
Italian MEP Brando Benifei, who chairs the European Parliament's delegation for relations with the US, shares that concern. “Trump could pursue an even more erratic foreign policy over the next two years, which could result in more trouble for Europe. His decisions on Ukraine and the Middle East will have a significant impact on us,” he said.
Energy crisis: no quick relief
The war in Iran, which has plunged Europe into an energy crisis, remains the most pressing worry for EU diplomats and lawmakers. “The elections themselves will not bring down energy prices. What matters is whether the United States and Iran move towards de-escalation,” said Romanian centre-right MEP Virgil-Daniel Popescu.
For Europe, the biggest breakthrough would be an agreement between Washington and Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has largely blocked the vital shipping route since the war began on 28 February, apart from a brief reopening in June. Severe restrictions continue to drive up energy costs.
A hostile Congress could increase pressure on Trump to end the conflict. Democrats now have greater influence over federal spending and can launch congressional investigations. Congress has the constitutional power to declare war and can pass legislation to end US military involvement, but Trump could veto such measures—and overriding him would require a two-thirds majority in both chambers, a formidable hurdle even after the Democratic gains.
In the wake of his defeat, Trump played down the prospect of further strikes on Iran, hinting at possible de-escalation while insisting the US remains “locked and loaded” if necessary. Dimitar Likov, a senior research officer at the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies in Brussels, is unconvinced. “I don't see this happening anytime soon given Trump's chaotic military intervention and Benjamin Netanyahu's desperate political position domestically,” he told Euronews.
Ukraine: a glimmer of hope
By contrast, the midterms could mark a significant shift in Washington's approach to Russia's war in Ukraine. The elections came amid deteriorating relations between Washington and Kyiv, with Trump facing criticism for allowing Russian diesel imports into the US and easing sanctions on Moscow.
A Democratic Congress is now expected to pressure Trump to maintain military support for Ukraine, particularly the supply of critical air defence systems and ballistic missile interceptors, and to take a tougher line on Moscow. “We hope this change will result in a smoother delivery of military aid to Ukraine,” a diplomat told Euronews.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has not publicly reacted to the results, which come at a sensitive moment in his relationship with Trump. Speaking in Berlin on Tuesday, before the outcome was known, he stressed the importance of continued US and European support for Kyiv. Russia, meanwhile, said it hoped the outcome would not affect Trump's efforts to negotiate what Moscow calls a “peace settlement” in Ukraine.
Democrats would still face obstacles, including the need for bipartisan support to overcome the Senate filibuster and Trump's veto power. Their influence over the White House's diplomatic negotiations with Moscow would remain limited.
NATO: the troop question remains
Trump's defeat could temper his more dramatic threats to withdraw American troops from Europe, but it is unlikely to halt Washington's gradual military disengagement from the continent. In May, the US announced the withdrawal of 5,000 troops from Germany. In June, it opened a six-month review of its force posture in Europe, due around the end of the year. European allies hope the review will not lead to further withdrawals.
The Pentagon, however, cannot go below 76,000 soldiers in Europe in 2026 without certifying to Congress that it would not harm US or NATO security. A Democrat-led House could serve as a short-term parachute, but it will not change the assumption that Europeans can no longer rely on the US for their security. “A shift in the balance of power does not guarantee a change. Europe must continue to do more for its own defence and security,” said David McAllister, a German MEP who chairs the Parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee.
Trade: a chance to push back?
The Democrats' victory is unlikely to change US trade policy much, as Trump retains control over tariffs and trade deals. Brussels and Washington are currently bound by a trade deal struck in July 2025, which sets US tariffs on most EU goods at 15% and leaves little room for renegotiation. European officials may find a more sympathetic ear in Congress, but the president's executive authority over trade remains intact.
As the dust settles, European leaders are bracing for a volatile two years. The Democrats' sweeping victory has shifted the balance of power in Washington, but it has not changed the fundamental unpredictability of the man in the White House. For Europe, the hope is that a chastened Trump will be more cautious—but the fear is that he will be more reckless.
