New data from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), analyzed by AFP, reveals that the frontline in Ukraine remained largely static in June, extending a broader trend of waning Russian momentum. Moscow's net territorial gain amounted to just 30 square kilometers, concentrated in the northeastern Kharkiv region. However, the ISW cautioned that much of this increase reflects the reclassification of earlier incursions as confirmed advances, as additional evidence emerged.
Ukrainian forces, meanwhile, recaptured 11 square kilometers in the southern Zaporizhzhia region and 18 square kilometers in the central Dnipropetrovsk region. The ISW's Geospatial Intelligence Team noted that the scale and scope of these counterattacks remain unclear, with the full impact likely to be reflected in data over the coming weeks.
Russia's Advance Slows Sharply
After losing around 403 square kilometers in April and May, Moscow's offensive has been hobbled by the growing effectiveness of Ukraine's frontline and mid-range drone strikes. April marked the first month in two and a half years that Russian forces surrendered more ground than they captured, a trend Ukraine built on in May. So far in 2026, Russian forces have advanced an average of just 15 square kilometers per month, a dramatic drop from the 405 square kilometers per month they managed in 2025.
The estimates exclude territory that Russia claims to have taken but which the ISW has neither confirmed nor denied. The ISW collaborates with the Critical Threats Project, part of the American Enterprise Institute, a US think tank specializing in conflict analysis.
Moscow currently occupies just over 19% of Ukraine, including roughly 7%—Crimea and parts of the industrial Donbas region—that was already under Russian or pro-Russian separatist control before the full-scale invasion began in February 2022. Most of Russia's territorial gains occurred during the first weeks of the war.
The human toll remains staggering. Hundreds of thousands have been killed and millions displaced since the invasion began. The war, Europe's deadliest since World War II, has caused more than 2 million military casualties, with Russian forces bearing the brunt of the losses, according to a study published by a US think tank on Wednesday.
As the frontline freezes, Ukraine continues to press its allies for more support. At the upcoming NATO summit in Ankara, Kyiv is expected to push for immediate air defense deliveries to counter Russian aerial threats. Meanwhile, the EU has moved to impose new sanctions on Russian drone manufacturers following deadly strikes on Kyiv, and has also sanctioned six Russian scientists over the poisoning of Alexei Navalny. On the diplomatic front, Ukraine and Moldova have advanced their EU accession talks, signaling continued European integration despite the war.
