The United States military conducted its second defensive strike against Iranian assets in three days, targeting four one-way attack drones near the Strait of Hormuz and a ground control station in Bandar Abbas. US Central Command (Centcom) said the strikes were necessary to neutralize threats to maritime traffic in the strategic waterway, through which a significant portion of global oil shipments transit.
President Donald Trump, speaking at a Cabinet meeting on Wednesday, expressed confidence that negotiations with Tehran were advancing, despite the renewed hostilities. “They want very much to make a deal,” Trump said. “So far, they haven’t gotten there. We’re not satisfied with it, but we will be — either that or we’ll have to just finish the job.” His remarks came as the fragile ceasefire between the two sides, brokered weeks ago, remains under strain.
Nuclear Deal Hinges on Uranium Stockpile and Regional Conflicts
At the heart of the talks is Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Tehran holds 440.9 kilograms of uranium enriched up to 60% purity, a short technical step from weapons-grade levels of 90%. Trump has demanded that Iran surrender this stockpile as a condition for sanctions relief. However, he ruled out Russia or China as custodians of the material, despite nuclear analysts suggesting either could serve as an acceptable third party for Tehran.
The negotiations are further complicated by Israel’s ongoing military campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon, which Tehran wants halted. Trump acknowledged that “daylight” remains between the US and Iran on several key issues, including the fate of the uranium and the regional conflict. European capitals, particularly Paris and Berlin, have watched the developments with concern, as any escalation in the Gulf could disrupt energy supplies and destabilize the broader Middle East.
Trump’s push for a deal is also shaped by domestic political pressures. With US midterm elections approaching in November, Republicans worry that rising fuel costs and inflation are souring voter sentiment. Analysts suggest Trump is seeking a credible narrative that Iran’s nuclear capability has been sufficiently diminished to declare victory, allowing him to wind down a conflict that has proven politically unpopular. Yet, details of a potential emerging deal have already drawn fierce criticism, even from some of his own supporters, who fear Iran’s hardline leaders will emerge battered but emboldened.
Trump dismissed the idea that electoral considerations influence his Iran strategy. “They thought they were gonna outwait me. You know, ‘We’ll outwait him. He’s got the midterms,’” he said. “I don’t care about the midterms.”
The latest US strikes come as the IRGC has threatened to turn Iran’s Gulf coast into a graveyard if the US resumes attacks, underscoring the volatility of the situation. For European observers, the standoff carries echoes of the 2019-2021 tanker seizures and drone incidents in the Gulf, which prompted EU member states to deploy naval assets to protect shipping lanes. The European Union has consistently advocated for a diplomatic solution, but the Trump administration’s unilateral approach has often sidelined Brussels.
Meanwhile, the humanitarian and economic toll of the conflict continues to mount. The Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for oil tankers, has seen reduced traffic due to the fighting, driving up global energy prices. European economies, already grappling with inflation and the fallout from the war in Ukraine, are particularly vulnerable to any disruption. The Nordic coalition has warned the EU against expanding Arctic drilling as a response, highlighting the tension between energy security and environmental goals.
As the US and Iran remain locked in a cycle of strikes and negotiations, the path to a sustainable agreement appears uncertain. Trump’s insistence on a deal “or we’ll have to just finish the job” leaves little room for compromise, while Tehran’s hardline stance shows no signs of softening. For Europe, the stakes are clear: a prolonged conflict in the Gulf could have cascading effects on energy markets, migration flows, and regional stability, making it imperative for EU capitals to maintain a unified diplomatic front.
