As the 2026 World Cup approaches—the first to be co-hosted by the United States, Canada, and Mexico—analysts and former players alike are weighing in on who will lift the trophy. The Opta Analyst platform, relying on its supercomputer simulations, has identified Spain as the frontrunner, while some of Europe's most decorated former stars are backing Argentina to retain their title.
Opta's Supercomputer Predictions
According to Opta's model, which ran 25,000 simulations of the tournament, Spain emerges as the most likely champion, winning in 16.1% of scenarios. This reflects the strength of the current European champions, who triumphed at Euro 2024 in Berlin. France follows with a 13% chance, England with 11.2%, and defending champions Argentina with 10.4%. Notably, in 35.9% of simulations, the winner is a nation that has never won the World Cup before, offering hope to teams like Portugal (7%) and the Netherlands (3.6%).
Among the 16 European teams in the 48-nation field, Germany (5.1%) and Brazil (6.6%) are the only other sides with more than a 5% probability. Italy, a four-time champion, notably failed to qualify, leaving a gap in the European contingent. The supercomputer also gives Uruguay a 1.7% chance, meaning the seven former champions in the tournament collectively have a 64.1% probability of winning.
Spain's Path to Glory
Spain's chances are bolstered by a favorable group stage draw alongside Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, and Cape Verde. Opta gives La Roja a 75.3% chance of topping their group and a 98.5% probability of advancing to the last 32. From there, they reach the quarter-finals in 52.1% of simulations, the semi-finals in 39%, and the final in 25.6%. This consistency reflects the depth of Spain's squad, which blends experienced stars like Rodri and Pedri with emerging talents.
However, the supercomputer's predictions are not infallible. As the data shows, even the most likely outcome leaves plenty of room for surprises. Teams like Morocco, who reached the semi-finals in 2022, have a 1.9% chance, while Croatia, runners-up in 2018 and bronze medalists in 2022, are given a 1.6% probability.
Former Stars Favor Argentina
Speaking to Euronews, Robert Pirès, a member of France's 1998 World Cup-winning team, expressed confidence in Les Bleus but acknowledged Argentina's strength. "I believe in my team. We have a great squad. The collective is very good, inside, we have very good players. We have Dembélé and Mbappé, Olise, Cherki," Pirès said. Yet, he and other former champions, including Italian defender Marco Materazzi—who scored in the 2006 final—have tipped Lionel Messi's Argentina to repeat their 2022 success. Materazzi cited Argentina's tactical discipline and Messi's enduring influence as key factors.
The defending champions, led by Messi, arrive in North America with a squad that blends youth and experience. After winning their third World Cup in Qatar, the Albiceleste are determined to become the first South American team to win back-to-back titles since Brazil in 1962. Their path is complicated by the presence of Brazil, now coached by Italian Carlo Ancelotti, a five-time Champions League winner, who aims to end Brazil's 24-year title drought.
Underdogs and Co-Hosts
Among the teams with slim chances, Turkey leads the pack at 0.9%, while co-hosts Canada (0.5%), the United States (1.2%), and Mexico (1%) are given modest probabilities. The supercomputer assigns a literal 0% chance to five nations: DR Congo, Qatar, Cape Verde, Haiti, and Curaçao. For European sides like Sweden (0.4%) and the Czech Republic (0.3%), the tournament offers a chance to exceed expectations, though the data suggests an uphill battle.
As the countdown to the 2026 World Cup continues, the debate between data-driven predictions and human intuition will only intensify. For now, Spain's supercomputer-backed status as favorites reflects their recent European success, but the memories of past champions—and the unpredictability of football—ensure that nothing is certain until the final whistle in New Jersey.
