A new survey commissioned by Belgian public broadcasters VRT and RTBF and the newspaper De Standaard has revealed a dramatic shift in public opinion: for the first time, a majority of Belgians view the United States as a greater adversary than China. The poll, conducted in March as part of the annual De Stemming study by the University of Antwerp and the Université Libre de Bruxelles, found that 50% of respondents now see the US as an adversary, while only 10% still consider it an ally.
Context and Timing
The survey was carried out shortly after US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran, a period marked by heightened anxiety over global energy supplies and rising prices. Researchers noted that this was the first time international security had dominated the survey’s agenda, and the geopolitical tensions likely influenced the results. The findings underscore a growing perception in Belgium that Washington’s actions are destabilizing rather than protective.
In contrast, China was viewed less negatively: between 40% and 44% of respondents described Beijing as an adversary, though very few considered it an ally. Many chose the neutral option “neither ally nor adversary.” However, unease about China’s military ambitions remains high: nearly 60% of Belgians believe a Chinese attack on Taiwan is likely in the near future, reflecting ongoing concerns about Beijing’s expanding influence in the Indo-Pacific.
Domestic Security and Strategic Autonomy
Despite these external threats, Belgians feel relatively secure at home. Only 12% of respondents in Flanders and 21% in Wallonia believe Belgium could face a direct military attack. Yet the poll reveals strong support for greater European independence. More than 80% of respondents said Europe should become militarily self-sufficient, and a majority backed stronger European responses to US trade measures and tariffs. This aligns with the EU’s ongoing push for strategic autonomy, as seen in recent debates over reducing dependence on China in critical sectors.
The survey also found overwhelming support for limiting foreign interference: nearly 90% of Belgians said the US should not be allowed to meddle in domestic affairs. This follows controversy over comments by the US ambassador to Belgium, which sparked a political row in Brussels.
Broader European Implications
The Belgian results echo a wider European trend. Across the continent, trust in the United States has eroded since the Trump administration, and the Biden era has not fully restored confidence. The survey’s emphasis on European self-reliance mirrors the EU’s recent moves to harden its stance on trade imbalances with China, as highlighted in the EU’s shift toward a harder line on Beijing. At the same time, the poll suggests that many Belgians see the US as a more immediate rival than China, a perception that could influence future foreign policy debates in Brussels and beyond.
The findings come as the EU weighs stricter trade measures against China, with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen calling for urgent talks on countering Chinese subsidies. The OECD recently reported that China’s state subsidies have reached record levels, distorting global markets. Meanwhile, the EU is set to join the US-led chip alliance Pax Silica to counter China’s AI ambitions, a move that underscores the complex interplay between transatlantic cooperation and European autonomy.
In Belgium, the survey has reignited discussions about the country’s role in NATO and its relationship with Washington. With a majority now favoring European military self-sufficiency, the pressure on EU leaders to deliver on defense integration is likely to grow. As one researcher put it, “This is not just a blip; it reflects a structural shift in how Belgians view the world.”
