Climate change is compounding the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza, where extreme heat, damaged infrastructure, and disease outbreaks are pushing already fragile systems toward collapse, according to humanitarian experts. New research led by Queen Mary University of London estimates that the Israel-Gaza war has generated around 33 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e) so far—equivalent to Jordan's annual emissions or 7.6 million petrol cars on the road.
The study, published in the journal One Earth in April, found that emissions from active military operations alone—artillery, rockets, and other military equipment—have exceeded 1.3 million tonnes of CO₂e. Additional emissions stem from constructing defensive infrastructure and the substantial carbon footprint of rebuilding damaged roads, buildings, and essential infrastructure.
The Overlooked Environmental Cost of Conflict
“Understanding the environmental impacts of conflict is essential if we are to fully account for the drivers of climate change,” says Dr Frederick Otu-Larbi from Lancaster University and the University of Energy and Natural Resources in Ghana. “Greater transparency around military emissions will help ensure these impacts are no longer overlooked.”
Calls to include military emissions in national carbon footprints and recognize the climate impact of conflict have grown louder in recent years. Last year, Ukraine demanded Russia pay €37 billion in what would be the world’s first case of climate reparations from war, due to the environmental damage from its full-scale invasion.
Climate-fuelled extreme weather is already devastating Gaza. Last summer, a deadly heatwave saw temperatures surpass 40°C, increasing dehydration risks and spoiling essential food supplies. Thousands of displaced Gazans endured the heat without protection due to forced displacement and limited electricity. As greenhouse gases continue to warm the planet, heatwaves are projected to become more frequent and intense.
The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) warns there is a 91 per cent chance that at least one of the next five years will exceed the 1.5°C threshold, and an 86 per cent chance that one of those years will break the record for Earth’s hottest year set in 2024. For every 1°C rise in air temperature, the atmosphere can hold about seven per cent more moisture, leading to more intense rainfall.
In March, heavy rainstorms turned streets into stagnant lakes, damaging shelters for more than 3,000 displaced Gazans. According to UNICEF, at least 11 children, including several newborns, died from hypothermia by early February due to prolonged exposure to cold, wet, and windy conditions. The UN aid coordination office (OCHA) reports that around 800,000 people—nearly 40 per cent of Gaza’s population—now live in flood-prone areas.
Rising temperatures, water scarcity, overcrowding, sewage overflow, and damaged sanitation systems are creating severe public health risks. “Humanitarian agencies have repeatedly warned that heat and unsafe water are contributing to the spread of diarrhoeal disease, hepatitis A, skin infections, and other communicable illnesses,” says Asif Hussain, CEO of UK aid charity SKT Welfare. He adds that rodent and insect infestations are now being reported as part of Gaza’s environmental crisis.
“When waste accumulates, sewage systems collapse, temperatures rise, and large populations are displaced into overcrowded areas, the conditions for disease transmission escalate rapidly,” Hussain explains. This pattern is not unique to Palestine. In parts of Yemen, Pakistan, and other fragile settings, climate-driven shifts in rainfall, prolonged drought, and rising temperatures are becoming structural conditions that directly affect water access, food production, livelihoods, and local economies.
“Authorities and humanitarian actors need to stop treating climate adaptation as something separate from emergency response,” Hussain warns. SKT Welfare is urging policymakers to invest in resilient water and sanitation systems, strengthen disease surveillance, and expand sustainable energy access through technologies like solar power.
“Once infrastructure collapses under combined conflict and climate pressures, the public health consequences escalate very quickly,” Hussain says. He worries that crises are becoming increasingly layered and prolonged, as the world edges toward a reality where conflict, food insecurity, displacement, environmental degradation, and climate shocks overlap. “Communities will face repeated emergencies with less time and fewer resources to recover between them,” he adds. “When healthcare systems are weakened, sanitation infrastructure is damaged, temperatures rise, and populations are displaced into overcrowded environments, outbreaks become far more difficult to contain. That’s why climate resilience can no longer be viewed as supplementary to humanitarian response. In many contexts, it’s becoming essential to sustaining the humanitarian response itself.”
