Western Europe endured one of its most intense May heatwaves on record last month, prompting the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service to declare that such extremes are rapidly becoming the region's new baseline. The service's May bulletin, released this week, documented a sharp swing from cooler-than-average conditions to a prolonged period of abnormally high temperatures, driven by a 'heat dome' of warm air originating from northern Africa.
According to Copernicus data, the global average surface air temperature for May reached 15.81°C, second only to May 2024. National records tumbled across the continent: the United Kingdom, France, Ireland, and Portugal all registered their hottest May days ever. In many parts of western Europe, 'feels-like' temperatures—which account for humidity and wind—soared to between 35°C and 40°C, placing significant strain on public health systems and infrastructure.
Rapid Transition and Human Impact
The Copernicus report highlighted the abruptness of the temperature shift. 'The month was marked by a rapid transition from much cooler-than-average conditions to one of the most intense heatwaves ever observed this early in the year in western Europe,' the service stated. This sudden change left little time for populations, crops, and ecosystems to acclimatise, amplifying the health and agricultural risks.
Samantha Burgess, strategic lead for climate at the European Centre for Medium–Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which operates Copernicus, underscored the broader implications. 'The unusually early and intense heatwave demonstrates how quickly climate extremes are becoming the new normal rather than the exception,' she said. Her remarks echo growing concerns among European policymakers about the continent's preparedness for more frequent and severe weather events.
The heatwave also coincided with a shift toward the El Niño weather pattern in the Pacific. Copernicus reported that sea surface temperatures globally were the second-highest on record for May, behind only 2024. Forecasts from the World Meteorological Organization indicate an 80% probability of El Niño developing between June and August, which could further elevate global temperatures and increase the likelihood of extreme weather across Europe and beyond.
Last week, the World Meteorological Organization warned that the coming El Niño might be one of the strongest on record, potentially pushing global temperatures to historic highs in 2027. The previous strong El Niño contributed to making 2023 the second-hottest year on record and 2024 the all-time hottest. The current trajectory suggests that Europe may face more frequent and intense heatwaves, droughts, and storms in the years ahead.
In response to these trends, the European Commission has accelerated its climate adaptation strategies, including the European Green Deal's goal of achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. However, critics argue that current policies are insufficient to mitigate the pace of change. The Copernicus data serves as a stark reminder that the window for meaningful action is narrowing.
For now, European nations are bracing for a summer that could see further records fall. As the continent grapples with the immediate consequences of the May heatwave—from crop failures in France to increased hospital admissions in the UK—the Copernicus warning underscores a sobering reality: what was once exceptional is becoming routine.
