Denmark's military intelligence agency has revised its threat assessment, warning that while a full-scale Russian invasion of a NATO country remains improbable, the risk of a limited military strike is growing. The assessment, presented on Thursday by the Danish Defence Intelligence Service (DDIS), underscores the heightened tension across Europe as the Kremlin's war in Ukraine enters its fifth year.
Thomas Ahrenkiel, head of the DDIS, told reporters in Copenhagen that the probability of a limited Russian attack against one or more NATO states bordering Russia is low but increasing. "There is a low but growing risk that Russia will launch a limited military attack against one or several NATO countries bordering Russia," he said. He added that the agency still considers it "highly unlikely that Russia would see any interest in invading a NATO country, but we cannot rule it out."
Hybrid threats on the rise
The DDIS assessment highlights a shift in Russian tactics. While past hybrid operations were primarily designed to sow fear and undermine public backing for Ukraine, they now increasingly aim to physically disrupt Western support. This includes sabotage against defence companies and railway lines used to transport military equipment, as well as destructive cyber attacks targeting critical infrastructure.
Ahrenkiel stressed that such attacks are likely to intensify in the coming months. "A limited military attack would be a desperate move on Russia's part and, like the intensified hybrid attacks, could potentially take place in the coming months," the agency said. However, it also noted that any conventional build-up would require months of preparation and would be difficult to conceal.
The warning comes amid a broader European alert over Russian interference. Earlier this month, Denmark's domestic intelligence service, PET, said Moscow was "actively" preparing sabotage operations against the country's defence industry. PET reported that Russian intelligence services were recruiting ordinary Danes on social media to photograph potential targets.
European capitals have been on edge since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, with fears that Moscow could extend its aggression westward. The recent incursion of a Russian helicopter into Polish airspace and the CIA's warning about Russian drone strikes have only heightened those concerns.
Ahrenkiel sought to reassure Danes that a conventional attack on their country is not expected. "We do not expect a conventional Russian military attack against Denmark," he said, though he acknowledged that Russia's increased risk appetite has consequences for the security situation in Scandinavia.
The Danish assessment echoes warnings from other Western leaders. In June, former British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said that according to intelligence assessments, Russia could attack a NATO country as soon as 2030. "It is our intelligence assessment and the assessment of other countries in NATO that there could be an attack by Russia on NATO as soon as 2030," Starmer said during a visit to a drone manufacturer in southwest England.
However, US President Donald Trump has publicly dismissed such concerns. In August, he said that Vladimir Putin was "not going to attack" NATO territory, following reports that CIA Director John Ratcliffe had flown to Moscow for talks aimed at dissuading Russia from testing the alliance. Trump told reporters in the Oval Office: "I've had good talks with him. He's not going to be attacking a NATO territory."
The divergent assessments between European and American officials highlight the uncertainty surrounding Russia's intentions. While the DDIS does not foresee an imminent invasion, it warns that the risk is real and growing. The agency's report also points to the possibility that a limited attack could be used to divert European military resources away from Ukraine, a scenario that would test NATO's unity and resolve.
As the war in Ukraine grinds on, European nations are bracing for more hybrid provocations. The spread of disinformation and the amplification of Russian state media are just some of the tools Moscow is using to undermine European solidarity. The DDIS assessment serves as a stark reminder that the threat from Russia extends far beyond the battlefield in Ukraine.
