Warsaw is pressing European capitals to rethink collective security in the face of artificial intelligence, arguing that the continent needs a deterrence framework comparable to the Cold War doctrine of mutually assured destruction. Poland's Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Digital Affairs, Krzysztof Gawkowski, described AI as a "force multiplier" that is reshaping the nature of conflict and demanding a coordinated response from the EU and NATO.
Speaking to journalists in Warsaw, Gawkowski projected that the number of cyberattacks targeting Poland would increase "tenfold" by 2027, as frontier large language models become more capable, more sophisticated, and more accessible. He stressed that the threat is no longer limited to criminal gangs, which European security services are generally equipped to handle, but now involves hostile states.
"Let's call a spade a spade: this is a digital war in Europe. Some countries are on the front line, like Poland, while others are not yet on that front, but their time will come too," Gawkowski said.
A modern version of mutually assured destruction
During the Cold War, the threat of nuclear annihilation prevented the United States and the Soviet Union from engaging in direct armed conflict. Gawkowski argues that a similar logic should now apply to cyber warfare: the credible promise of retaliation could deter adversaries from launching devastating AI-driven attacks on critical infrastructure.
"We must remain acutely aware of state-level adversaries, such as Russia, Belarus, and others. We must also communicate clearly: if you attack us, we will strike back," he said. "If we fail to signal our intent to retaliate, we risk reaching a point where a counterstrike is no longer possible."
The deputy prime minister pointed to recent cyberattacks that disrupted refrigeration systems in supermarkets across nine European countries, causing millions of euros in losses. He called those incidents a "prelude" to far more destructive operations that could paralyse power grids, hospitals, and transport networks.
Gawkowski repeatedly rejected the term "hybrid warfare," which NATO allies have used to describe such attacks to avoid triggering Article 5, the alliance's collective defence clause. He insisted that cyberattacks on critical national infrastructure should be treated as acts of war.
"If a bomb dropped on a power plant, would anyone in Europe doubt that we were at war? If a tank rolled in and destroyed a supermarket, would anyone question whether a war was taking place?" he asked. "Yet, today, we are facing exactly these kinds of attacks. Digital bombs are falling on power plants, striking supermarkets and hitting hospitals in Poland, causing them to cease operations."
Europe's response must be collective
Gawkowski urged European governments to stop "turning a blind eye" to the scale of the AI threat and to adapt national strategies and security budgets accordingly. NATO last revised its AI strategy in 2024, but the minister argued that more urgent and concrete action is needed at the EU level.
The warning comes as Poland steps up its role as a frontline state in European security. Warsaw has been vocal about the need to keep Eastern security on the agenda in discussions over Ukraine, and has recently detained suspects accused of spying for Russia. The country's concerns about AI-driven attacks are part of a broader push for a more robust European defence posture.
Other European voices are also raising alarms. The head of the UK's National Cyber Security Centre has warned that AI-driven cyberattacks on critical infrastructure could hit by 2028. The recent supermarket freezer attacks, which affected retailers in multiple countries, have been analysed by experts as a warning of what is to come.
Gawkowski's call for deterrence echoes the logic of the Cold War, but with a digital twist. In an era where a single AI-enabled operation could disable a nation's essential services, the ability to strike back—and the willingness to say so—may be the only thing preventing catastrophe.
For now, Poland is pushing for a European strategy that treats cyberattacks with the same seriousness as conventional military aggression. Whether other capitals will follow remains an open question, but the deputy prime minister's message is clear: the time to prepare is now, not after the first major strike.
