The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has confirmed that El Niño conditions are developing in the tropical Pacific and are expected to strengthen rapidly over the coming months. The agency’s global seasonal climate update projects a strong El Niño event between July and September, raising the likelihood of heatwaves, droughts, and heavy rainfall across several regions.
“The WMO community has launched an unprecedented mobilisation to coordinate activities across the United Nations and at regional level to support governments, humanitarian organisations and climate-sensitive sectors,” said WMO Secretary General Celeste Saulo. “Advanced seasonal forecasts and early warnings are vital to save lives and cushion the impact on our economies and our communities.”
What El Niño Means for Europe
El Niño, a natural phenomenon that occurs every two to seven years when sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific rise significantly, typically exerts its strongest influence on tropical regions. South America, the southern United States, East Africa, and Central Asia have historically faced heightened flood risks, while Australia, northern South America, and parts of Southeast Asia endure droughts and wildfires.
For Europe, the effects are far more indirect and generally less severe. According to current forecasts, the continent may experience more unsettled conditions later this year, including a milder, wetter, and windier autumn and early winter. However, El Niño is unlikely to affect Europe’s summer of 2026 directly. This means that the recent blistering heatwaves that have killed thousands across the continent—from Paris to Bucharest—are not attributable to El Niño, despite some media reports linking the two.
The record ocean heat that has contributed to these extreme temperatures is instead a consequence of long-term climate change, exacerbated by continued fossil-fuel emissions.
Indirect Threats: Food Security and Global Stability
While Europe may escape the worst of El Niño’s direct wrath, the phenomenon will still have knock-on effects. The IHE Delft Institute for Water Education in the Netherlands has been studying regions directly impacted by El Niño and warns that many staple foods imported by Europe could be at risk. In Nicaragua, for example, key crops such as maize and beans may fail in already fragile areas, leading to food insecurity and income loss. Similarly, a lack of rain and low river flows in Colombia, Northeast Brazil, and India could severely restrict irrigated crops, forcing greater reliance on groundwater and potentially causing overexploitation—and export shortages.
These disruptions come at a time when extreme weather and conflicts are already reshaping European travel and supply chains, adding further strain to the continent’s food systems.
Climate Change, Not El Niño, Is the Real Driver
Climate scientists caution against overstating El Niño’s role. While most El Niño events temporarily raise global average temperatures by about 0.2°C, climate change has already pushed global surface temperatures up by approximately 1.3 to 1.5°C compared to pre-industrial levels. The impacts of El Niño are therefore compounded by a warming world, rather than being solely responsible for the extreme weather experts predict.
This is why 2025 was the third warmest year on record—hotter than the El Niño year of 2016—despite the cooling influence of a La Niña event that year. “El Niño is a natural phenomenon,” said climate scientist Friederike Otto from Imperial College London. “It comes and goes. Climate change on the contrary gets worse as long as we do not stop burning fossil fuels. So climate change is the reason to freak out.”
Ioanna Vergini, founder of global weather forecasting platform WFY24, told Euronews Earth that El Niño has been used as a “distraction” from climate change while Europe baked under 40°C temperatures last week. A rapid attribution analysis from World Weather Attribution (WWA) found that the daytime highs and overnight temperatures seen during the recent heat dome would have been “virtually impossible to occur at this time of year” as recently as 1976—but have been made possible due to continued fossil-fuel emissions.
As the continent grapples with the immediate health and economic consequences of extreme heat, the WHO Europe chief has urged governments to treat extreme heat as a health emergency. The underlying message from scientists is clear: while El Niño may amplify certain risks, the long-term trend of rising temperatures demands urgent action to reduce emissions and adapt to a changing climate.
