International tourist arrivals across OECD countries surged by an estimated 3.4% in 2025, reaching a record 847 million, according to the newly released OECD Tourism Trends and Policies 2026 report. Yet beneath this headline growth, the tourism landscape is being fundamentally reshaped by extreme weather events, geopolitical conflicts, and a growing demand for responsible travel. Destinations across Europe and beyond must now strengthen their capacity to anticipate and adapt to uncertainty, the report warns.
Record arrivals mask uneven recovery
One-third of OECD countries expect tourism performance to exceed 2025 levels by the end of 2026, with several breaking new records. Four nations posted double-digit growth in inbound arrivals last year: Finland (up 16.5%), Japan (up 15.8%), Korea (up 15.7%), and Norway (up 12.5%). For Japan and Korea, this builds on a strong 2024 recovery fueled by expanded connectivity and a weak yen.
However, arrivals fell in four OECD countries in 2025 and remain below pre-pandemic levels: Canada (down 0.6%), Germany (down 0.8%), Ireland (down 2.8%), and the United States (down 5.5%). In Israel, inbound tourism has been severely disrupted by the Middle East conflict, with arrivals down 70.8% compared to 2019. The report notes that the conflict has disrupted global travel flows and increased costs, weighing on traveler confidence—particularly in the region and for destinations reliant on Gulf air connectivity. These effects are likely to persist in the near term.
OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann stressed the need for lessons from the pandemic and the Middle East conflict: “This means applying the lessons of the pandemic and the conflict in the Middle East to strengthen crisis preparedness, and managing tourism and visitor flows to ensure the sector delivers lasting benefits.”
Extreme weather becomes a travel factor
Extreme weather—heatwaves, wildfires, and cyclones—has become a key consideration for travelers choosing destinations and travel periods. The report urges destinations to embed risk assessment, early warning systems, and crisis response into tourism planning. Several European countries have already launched multilingual emergency alert apps: Japan’s ‘Safety Tips’, Austria’s ‘AT-Alert’, Croatia’s 112 app, and the pan-European MeteoAlarm system now push real-time warnings on storms, wildfires, and extreme heat directly to visitors’ phones.
The report also calls for investment in resilient tourism infrastructure, including nature-based solutions. Some cities are creating ‘heat refuges’ within the visitor experience. Madrid’s Refúgiate en la cultura (Take refuge in culture) initiative promotes museums as air-conditioned shelters during heatwaves. As record ocean heat threatens Europe with sea level rise and extreme weather, such adaptations are becoming increasingly urgent.
Responsible tourism gains momentum
The report emphasizes that destinations must ensure tourism practices benefit local communities. This means managing growth to balance benefits and pressures by spreading visitor flows to prepared areas, investing in shared infrastructure, and integrating tourism into wider regional development. Expect more destinations to promote local-business certification schemes, community-based tourism, and incentives to spend beyond big chains.
Tourist taxes, visitor caps, timed-entry systems, and promotion of ‘second cities’ and off-season travel are likely to become more common. This shift aligns with broader trends in slow tourism, which some see as an elitist escape but others view as a genuine shift in how we travel. Meanwhile, tourism-driven rent hikes are squeezing locals across Southern Europe, highlighting the need for balanced approaches.
As airlines, tour operators, and other tourism providers adjust their programmes for 2027 and beyond, destinations will need to anticipate changing travel patterns and adapt their strategies to evolving geopolitical, economic, and weather-related risks. The OECD report makes clear that the era of predictable tourism is over—and that proactive adaptation is no longer optional.
