Brussels is bracing for a pivotal week in the EU's enlargement agenda. On Wednesday, the European Commission will release its annual progress reports on candidate countries, alongside detailed roadmaps for the four frontrunners: Montenegro, Albania, Moldova and Ukraine. The documents are meant to translate the bloc's renewed enlargement momentum into concrete steps, but they also risk exposing a widening gap between the most advanced hopefuls and those whose bids have stalled for years.
The timing is significant. A decade after the Brexit referendum, the EU is seeking to demonstrate that its promise of membership is more than rhetoric. Enlargement has become a central pillar of the bloc's external strategy, offering neighbours a credible path into the European project—and, implicitly, a counterweight to Russian influence. But as officials in the Berlaymont acknowledge, the real test is whether Brussels can deliver on its ambitions.
Frontrunners and their hurdles
Montenegro remains the closest to the finish line, with Podgorica hoping to become the EU's 28th member by 2028. Yet its progress is increasingly entangled in bilateral disputes with Croatia, rooted in the unresolved legacy of the Yugoslav Wars. Petar Marković, Head of Montenegro's Mission to the EU, told Europe Today that his government has worked through the summer to keep reforms on track. "We are also facing intensified talks with our closest EU member state and neighbour, Croatia, to resolve some open questions of mutual interest, which we are confident will be done satisfactorily for both sides," he said.
Albania, widely seen as the silver medallist in the accession race, has been shaken by domestic unrest. Major protests erupted over preparatory work for a luxury resort in a protected area, a project linked to Jared Kushner, son-in-law of former US President Donald Trump. The controversy has tested the government's reform credentials and its ability to manage public discontent while pursuing EU integration.
Moldova, meanwhile, has surprised many with its rapid progress. The Commission has reportedly had to reallocate internal resources to keep pace with Chișinău, which is close to closing negotiation chapters it only recently opened. The country's pro-European government has used the momentum to push through reforms, despite persistent Russian interference and a fragile security environment.
Ukraine's high-stakes bid
Ukraine's accession talks are arguably the most closely watched, given Russia's full-scale invasion and the existential stakes involved. Taras Kachka, Ukraine's Representative to the EU, insisted that Kyiv is implementing reforms "faster and better" than ever before, even under wartime conditions. "We might see challenges that are stemming from the security situation, Russian aggression, and the fact that Ukraine is really one of the biggest candidates among frontrunners," he said in an interview with Sasha Vakulina.
Ukraine's formal progress has been unblocked by the change of government in Hungary, where former Prime Minister Viktor Orbán had long derailed the process. Kyiv now expects to open all negotiating clusters before the end of the year. However, significant hurdles remain, including how to integrate Ukraine's vast agricultural sector into the EU's common market, and how to address anti-corruption concerns. Kachka acknowledged that "complex negotiations" lie ahead but insisted they should not derail Ukraine's overall path to membership.
The laggards: North Macedonia and Georgia
While the frontrunners accelerate, other candidates risk being left behind. North Macedonia's bid has been stalled for years, largely due to bilateral disputes with Bulgaria over history and language. Georgia, once a frontrunner itself, has seen its EU aspirations freeze amid political turmoil and a government that has drifted toward authoritarianism. The Commission's new roadmaps, which will be updated annually, are designed to provide a clearer path for the most advanced candidates, but they may also formalise the two-speed nature of the enlargement process.
The EU executive has also proposed institutional safeguards for new member states, currently being discussed in the context of Montenegro's accession treaty. That treaty is expected to serve as a blueprint for how Brussels integrates newcomers, potentially including mechanisms to protect the rule of law and the single market.
Beyond the roadmaps
Wednesday's package will also outline a more detailed approach to gradual integration, including the launch of dedicated dialogues with the frontrunners. This could allow candidate countries to participate in certain EU policies and programmes before formal accession, a move designed to keep momentum alive and demonstrate tangible benefits to citizens.
Yet the challenges are not only technical. The EU's own political will is being tested, as member states debate how to absorb new members without diluting the bloc's cohesion. The roadmaps are a step forward, but they are also a reminder that enlargement is a marathon, not a sprint—and that some runners are already falling behind.
