Europe's gas supply is more precarious than it has been in years. A report published on Thursday by the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSOG) warns that a severe winter cold snap could leave the bloc facing a shortfall of 12% to 15% of demand. The warning comes as EU gas storage facilities stood at just 72% full on October 1, down from 83% at the same point last year, following what the report describes as a "challenging injection season."
The winter supply outlook, released on October 8, models two scenarios that assume no Russian pipeline gas reaches the EU. While the bloc has largely phased out Russian gas, exceptions remain for landlocked member states such as Hungary and Slovakia. The report also highlights the risk of a disruption to the largest offshore gas infrastructure supplying continental Europe, combined with a complete halt to pipeline imports from Algeria, which would pose a serious threat to the bloc's energy security.
LNG dependence grows
As Europe moves away from Russian pipeline supplies, its reliance on the volatile global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market has deepened. The United States has emerged as the EU's top LNG supplier, replacing much of the gas previously imported from Russia. But this dependence cuts both ways: even under normal winter conditions, a squeeze on LNG supplies could drive European storage levels down to just 13% by March 2027, potentially forcing energy-intensive industries to cut production.
"Under tight LNG supply conditions, high gas prices may also lead to a response from price sensitive demand, highlighting the importance of securing sufficient LNG imports and maximising storage levels ahead of and during the early stages of the winter season," the report reads.
Shipping constraints through the Strait of Hormuz—a chokepoint controlling 20% of global LNG trade—have severely throttled exports from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates since the US-Israeli war against Iran began on 28 February. While direct European exposure to Qatari gas is modest at roughly 8%, with Italy the most affected member state, the resulting global supply crunch has triggered an aggressive bidding war between Europe and Asia, driving up price volatility and leaving the continent vulnerable. Qatar has warned that the global economy is paying the price for the Iran war.
Infrastructure bottlenecks
Western European countries have benefited from new coastal LNG terminals and access to pipeline supplies from Norway. But landlocked countries in Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe remain more exposed to supply disruptions. If major pipeline infrastructure—such as the North Sea's Europipe 2 or Algerian import lines—suffers a disruption alongside a harsh winter, infrastructure bottlenecks will physically restrict the flow of gas from West to East.
Southeastern Europe could see immediate localised supply shortfalls of up to 12% on peak demand days, testing the limits of European solidarity. As reserves dwindle, governments could come under growing pressure to prioritise domestic consumers over neighbouring countries.
Brussels has urged EU countries to maximise early-winter storage injections and maintain rigid cooperative behaviour to ensure equal sharing of any eventual demand curtailments. The goal is to avoid panic buying and prevent prices from climbing even higher.
The report underscores the fragile state of Europe's post-Russian energy architecture. While the continent has made significant strides in diversifying supplies, the margin for error is thin. Ukraine's frontline cities are already bracing for another harsh winter, and the EU's energy security remains intertwined with geopolitical tensions beyond its borders.
For now, the bloc is hoping for a mild winter. But the ENTSOG analysis makes clear that a cold snap, combined with any disruption to key infrastructure or LNG imports, could quickly turn a manageable situation into a full-blown crisis.
