Household electricity and gas prices across the European Union declined on average in the first half of 2026, even as the conflict in the Middle East began to push up wholesale costs. But the reprieve may be temporary, with analysts warning that higher bills could arrive in 2027.
According to Eurostat data covering 38 European countries, household electricity prices including taxes ranged from €6.6 per 100 kWh in Turkey to €38.7 in Ireland. Within the EU, Hungary had the lowest price at €11.4, while the EU average stood at €28.3. Ireland was followed by Germany (€36.2), Belgium (€35.8), Austria (€32.6), Italy (€31.4) and Sweden (€30.6). Spain (€25.1) and France (€24.9) both came in below the EU average.
Purchasing power changes the picture
When adjusted for local price levels using purchasing power standards (PPS), the rankings shift significantly. Romania, which had a mid-range euro price, emerged as the most expensive in PPS terms at 46.9 per 100 kWh, followed by Poland (41.1) and Czechia (34.3). Ireland and Italy were next at 32.8 each. At the other end, Iceland (12.6), Turkey (13.5), Malta (13.8), Hungary (14.7) and Norway (15.0) had the lowest PPS prices.
Among the EU's four largest economies, Italy had the highest PPS price (32.8), closely followed by Germany (32.4). Spain (28.0) was near the EU average (28.4), while France (23.3) was notably cheaper.
Price movements varied widely. Compared with the second half of 2025, the EU average electricity price fell by 2.2%. Finland saw the largest increase in euro terms at 19.5%, followed by Turkey (11.2%), Poland (10.6%), Lithuania (10.6%) and Sweden (10.4%). Denmark (-28.2%) and Luxembourg (-24.1%) recorded the biggest drops. Italy's prices rose by 5.9%, while Germany fell 6.5%, Spain 6% and France 3%.
Year on year, the EU average was down 1.6% from the first half of 2025. Romania recorded a striking 51.9% jump, with Turkey (35%), Ireland (19.8%) and Finland (18.4%) also seeing significant increases. All four of the EU's largest economies saw declines: France (-7%), Germany (-5.7%), Italy (-4.5%) and Spain (-3.9%).
Government policies play a key role in these differences, according to Professor Xiaoyi Mu, director of the Centre for Energy, Petroleum and Mineral Law and Policy at the University of Dundee. Taxes, levies and network charges make up a large share of final prices. Denmark, for instance, temporarily cut its electricity tax by roughly €0.10 per kWh from 1 January 2026, while Finland offered no such relief.
Energy market intelligence firm VaasaETT, which helps compile the Household Energy Price Index (HEPI), also points to differences in energy mix, tariff structures, supplier purchasing strategies and how costs are shared among customer groups.
Gas prices: Sweden tops the list
For natural gas, household prices including taxes ranged from €1.6 per 100 kWh in Georgia to €22 in Sweden across the 29 countries with data. Hungary had the lowest EU price at €3.3, against an EU average of €11. The Netherlands (€16.2), France (€13.5), Portugal (€12.6) and Austria (€12.4) were the most expensive after Sweden. France, Germany (€11.6) and Italy (€11.4) were above the EU average, while Spain (€7.9) was below.
In PPS terms, Hungary was cheapest at 4.3 per 100 kWh, while North Macedonia, which was below the EU average in euros (€10.8), jumped to the top at 20.8. Sweden (17.7), Portugal (15.0) and the Netherlands (13.8) also ranked high. Turkey (5.0), Luxembourg (6.6) and Croatia (6.8) were among the lowest after Hungary.
EU household gas prices fell by 10.2% on average compared with the second half of 2025. Italy (-23.2%), Spain (-17.6%) and Greece (-16%) saw the largest drops, while Turkey (+12.9%) and Romania (+6.3%) recorded increases. Year on year, the EU average was down 3.5%, with France the only one of the four largest economies to see a rise, up 3.7%.
Why household bills lag wholesale markets
The data cover only about four months after the US and Israel began striking Iran in late February, so the full impact on household bills may not yet be visible. “There is always a lag between the benchmark wholesale natural gas price (TTF) and the prices paid by households,” said Professor Mu. “The lag can range from a few months to more than a year, depending on how the retail energy market is organised in each country.”
Many households are on fixed-price contracts, and suppliers cannot pass on higher wholesale costs while those rates are locked in. Suppliers also often buy gas and electricity in advance to hedge against price swings, further delaying the transmission of wholesale changes to retail tariffs.
Mu noted that Europe's benchmark wholesale gas price fell by 19% in the second half of 2025 compared with the first half, and by 14% year on year. “I believe this is one of the key reasons behind the fall in household energy prices in the first half of 2026 despite the subsequent increase in wholesale gas prices following the conflict in the Middle East,” he said. “For this reason, unfortunately, I do expect households could face higher energy bills in the second half of 2026, but more so in the first half of 2027.”
As the conflict continues to affect energy markets, oil prices have edged up amid shipping attacks near Hormuz, and Lufthansa's fuel bill has climbed €2bn. These pressures could eventually feed through to European households, though the timing and scale remain uncertain.
