This Thursday evening, European Council President António Costa hosts the twenty-seven national leaders for an exclusive working dinner in Brussels, setting the stage for high-stakes negotiations on Ukraine, trade, and the bloc's long-term budget. Behind closed doors, the discussions will shape the European Union's strategic direction for years to come.
Ukraine's Membership Path
The first course on the menu is Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is expected to address the leaders via video link, followed by a debate on a major diplomatic milestone: opening the first formal block of EU membership negotiations for both Ukraine and Moldova. This step, long sought by Kyiv, would signal a concrete commitment from Brussels to integrate the war-torn country into the European fold. The discussions come amid ongoing tensions with Russia, as highlighted by recent protests against Moscow's cultural presence in Europe, such as the Pussy Riot and FEMEN protest against Russia's Venice Biennale return.
Confronting China's Trade Practices
Next, leaders will grapple with global economic survival. The European Union is confronting unfair competition from China, aiming to build a unified stance against Beijing's state subsidies that threaten European industries. The goal is to prevent European factories from closing due to a flood of subsidized Chinese goods. This issue has become a priority for many member states, particularly those with strong manufacturing sectors, as they seek to protect jobs and competitiveness. The summit's outcome could influence future trade policies and negotiations with Beijing.
Budget Battle and New Taxes
The most contentious item on the agenda is the next seven-year budget, known as the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF). Costa has delivered a blunt ultimatum: no deal this year without new EU-wide taxes. Brussels wants to raise billions through green duties and fresh levies on big tech, crypto, and online gambling. The Cypriot presidency has proposed a compromise budget of €1.73 trillion, but fiscal frugals like Germany and Sweden argue the total sum is still far too high. This budget battle reflects deeper divisions between net contributors and net recipients, with the former demanding stricter spending controls.
The pressure is immense, especially as crushing energy bills from the war in Iran still hang over the table. The conflict has disrupted global energy markets, driving up costs for European households and businesses. Leaders must balance fiscal discipline with the need for investment in green transitions and digital innovation.
What to Expect
The official summit conclusions on Friday will no doubt look polished and uniform. However, the real, messy fate of the European economy is being carved up across Thursday's dinner plates. If history is any guide, expect the coffee to be strong, the knives to be out, and the negotiations to stretch long after the tables are cleared. The decisions made here will have lasting implications for the EU's role in global affairs, its internal cohesion, and its ability to respond to crises.
For more context on the broader geopolitical landscape, see our analysis of six key takeaways from the G7 summit in Évian, which touched on similar themes of trade and security. Additionally, the UK's efforts to reset ties with the EU, as reported in UK minister confident of securing three-way EU reset deal at July summit, underscore the complex web of relationships shaping Europe's future.
