On 12 June, the European Union's Migration and Asylum Pact will move from legislative framework to operational reality. The package of nine regulations, agreed by the European Council and Parliament in 2024, aims to overhaul how the bloc manages external borders, asylum claims, and the return of irregular migrants. But with national governments still grappling with implementation, the question is whether the pact can deliver on its promise to reduce illegal migration.
The pact introduces mandatory pre-entry screening at external borders within seven days—or three days for those already inside the EU—covering identity, security, and health checks. A reformed Eurodac database will now collect facial images and travel document data, and issue security alerts for individuals linked to terrorism. The European Union Agency for Asylum (EUAA) has described the system as bringing “efficiency into the system,” noting that national procedures will gradually align, and “in time, so too should asylum outcomes.”
Return hubs and the repatriation gap
A central innovation is the creation of so-called “return hubs” outside EU territory, where migrants without the right to stay can be hosted pending deportation. The Return Regulation, agreed on 1 June, streamlines procedures and allows for detention of up to 24 months for those who do not cooperate or pose security risks. Yet the scale of the challenge is stark: Eurostat data show that in a typical quarter, EU states issue around 117,500 return orders, but only about 33,860 people actually leave—a repatriation rate of roughly 28–29 percent. Nearly three out of four irregular migrants ordered to leave remain in the bloc, often in legal limbo.
Commissioner for Internal Affairs and Migration, Magnus Brunner, called the agreement “a demonstration that we are getting our European house in order.” Civil society groups, however, have voiced concerns about migrants' rights, particularly regarding detention conditions and access to legal counsel. The EUAA has stressed that vulnerable individuals—such as victims of torture, rape, or gender-based violence—should not be subjected to accelerated border procedures if their needs cannot be adequately met.
National capacity under strain
The pact shifts responsibility away from the old Dublin Regulation, which placed the burden on first-entry countries like Italy, Spain, Greece, and Malta. Instead, it introduces a solidarity mechanism requiring all member states to contribute—either by relocating asylum seekers, providing financial support, or offering operational assistance. But implementation remains uneven. Germany, France, the Netherlands, and Belgium face housing shortages and strain on education, healthcare, and welfare systems. Frontline towns such as Lampedusa in Italy and the former Moria camp in Greece have seen facilities designed for hundreds overwhelmed by thousands.
The EUAA currently has around 1,300 personnel deployed in 12 member states, and plans to shift from preparing guidance to providing active operational support on the ground. Yet national governments must still pass implementing legislation, train border guards, and set up screening facilities. As our earlier analysis noted, the two-year transition period was intended to give capitals time to prepare, but many are still behind schedule.
External partnerships and prevention
The pact also focuses on preventing irregular migration at the point of departure through partnerships with third countries. This includes strengthening border management capacities in origin and transit nations, cooperating with Frontex, and using development aid to address root causes. The EU has already paid billions to Turkey under a 2016 deal to curb crossings into Greece, but that approach left the bloc vulnerable to political pressure from Ankara. The new framework aims to diversify partnerships, though critics argue it risks outsourcing migration control to countries with questionable human rights records.
Meanwhile, internal border checks remain a point of contention. Germany has defied EU calls to end its internal checks, citing migration control as justification—a move that undermines the Schengen area's free movement principle. The pact's success will depend on whether member states can trust each other to manage external borders effectively, reducing the need for internal controls.
The stakes are high. In 2025, over 669,400 first-time asylum applications were logged across the EU, and Frontex reported more than 178,000 irregular entries. The pact's digital monitoring system, faster procedures, and return hubs are designed to break the bottleneck. But without a significant improvement in repatriation rates and genuine burden-sharing, the EU's ambition to reduce illegal migration may remain just that—an ambition.
