The European Union has spent an estimated €8.7 billion on Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the Arctic in the first ten months of 2026, according to an analysis by environmental campaign group Urgewald. That figure already exceeds the bloc's total bill for 2025 by 21%, underscoring how European buyers remain a key market for Moscow's energy exports even as Brussels prepares to ban Russian LNG imports from January 1, 2027.
Urgewald's analysis of data from energy intelligence firm Kpler shows that EU ports received 12.89 million tonnes of LNG from Russia's Yamal project between January and October, a 6.3% increase year-on-year. That volume accounted for 81% of all Yamal deliveries worldwide, meaning Europe continues to be the project's primary customer. On average, a Yamal cargo arrived at an EU port every 1.7 days during the period.
The rising spending reflects both higher volumes and more expensive gas. October deliveries fell 11% compared with September, yet their estimated value rose 2.6% to €839 million, as the European gas price benchmark climbed to €86.79 per megawatt-hour—more than double the level before the US-Israel war on Iran.
France and Belgium lead the way
France was the main destination for October shipments, receiving 5.37 million tonnes, or 70% of EU deliveries that month. Spain took 2.91 million tonnes, the Netherlands 1.32 million tonnes, and Portugal 0.22 million tonnes. Over the full ten-month period, Belgium remained the largest individual destination, with 42 cargoes and around 3.1 million tonnes unloaded at Zeebrugge. Notably, no Yamal cargoes were recorded at the Belgian terminal in August, September, or October, though its overall importance to the trade remains significant, Urgewald noted.
Alexander Kirk, a sanctions campaigner at Urgewald, pointed out that the EU already has commercial LNG partnerships with the US, Norway, and Algeria. “We can end Russian LNG imports on 1 January. But switching suppliers still leaves European households exposed to gas price spikes and political pressure from abroad,” he told Euronews. He urged a faster shift to clean technologies to cut gas demand: “Every home we insulate or switch to a heat pump cuts gas demand. Every time wind or solar replaces gas in the power grid, Europe cuts emissions and gives gas exporters less leverage.”
The impending ban could deal a significant logistical and commercial blow to Moscow. Yamal's Arctic location makes access to European ports particularly valuable: the project relies on specialised Arc7 ice-class tankers to navigate frozen waters, and European destinations allow ships to unload relatively close to the production site and return quickly. Without EU ports, Russia would face longer voyages, higher transport costs, and fewer opportunities to redirect cargoes, especially during winter when navigation along the Northern Sea Route becomes more difficult.
Urgewald argues that losing the European market would undermine the economics of Russia's Arctic LNG exports, rather than simply redirecting supplies elsewhere. However, the impact will depend on Moscow's ability to develop alternative shipping routes and markets. China, South Korea, and Taiwan were the biggest receivers in Asia, accounting for 18.6% of Yamal deliveries between January and October.
Questions remain over whether EU countries will enforce the ban without exemptions or last-minute concessions, particularly as winter approaches and energy security concerns persist. Sebastian Rötters, sanctions campaigner at Urgewald, urged EU countries to “hold the line.”
The EU's continued reliance on Russian LNG stands in contrast to its repeated political commitments to end dependence on Russian energy following the invasion of Ukraine. As the ban deadline nears, the bloc faces a test of its resolve, with potential knock-on effects for European security architecture and energy diplomacy.
