Brussels is on the verge of approving the most stringent overhaul of European migration policy in decades, with a new law that would allow EU member states to send irregular migrants to return hubs outside the bloc, extend detention periods, and accelerate deportations. The agreement, expected today between EU governments and the European Parliament, marks a decisive shift toward enforcement-driven migration management, driven by rising voter anxiety and the electoral gains of anti-immigration parties across the continent.
The Return Regulation aims to address the persistently low return rate: currently, only about 28 percent of migrants ordered to leave the EU are effectively returned to their countries of origin or a third country. EU Home Affairs Commissioner Magnus Brunner stated, "We will ensure that those who have no right to stay in the EU are actually returned." The legislation reflects a broader trend under Ursula von der Leyen's second term, where the focus has moved from managing migration within the bloc to expediting the removal of individuals without legal status.
Return Hubs and the 'Era of Deportations'
The centrepiece of the law is the provision allowing EU countries to establish deportation centres—so-called return hubs—in non-EU states, provided bilateral agreements are in place. These hubs can serve as transit points or longer-term holding facilities. This marks a departure from current rules, which generally restrict returns to a migrant's country of origin or a state with a proven connection. Families with children may be transferred to these hubs, though unaccompanied minors are exempt.
Swedish right-wing conservative MEP Charlie Weimers, a negotiator on the file, declared, "The era of deportations has begun," after the Parliament initially approved the measure. However, human rights groups have condemned the proposal. Over 250 civil society organisations have called for its rejection. Sarah Chander, Director at the Equinox Initiative for Racial Justice, warned, "The EU is legitimising offshore prisons, racial profiling and child detention in ways we have never seen." Critics also question the effectiveness of such centres, pointing to Italy's pilot project in Albania, which has hosted fewer than 100 migrants despite an initial capacity target of 36,000 per year.
Despite the controversy, several governments are pressing ahead. Italy is already operating its Albanian scheme, while Germany, the Netherlands, Austria, Denmark, and Greece have teamed up to identify potential partner countries for future return centres. The push for tougher measures comes amid a backdrop of declining irregular arrivals—data shows a substantial drop in 2025 and 2026—yet migration remains a potent political issue, fuelling the rise of far-right parties such as National Rally in France and Vox in Spain.
Key Provisions: Detention, Appeals, and Entry Bans
The new regulation introduces several other significant changes. National authorities will be empowered to search irregular migrants' "place of residence or other relevant premises," a provision that NGOs have compared to raids by the US Immigration and Customs Enforcement. The law also ends the automatic suspension of deportations during legal appeals, leaving courts to decide on a case-by-case basis whether to halt a return order.
Maximum legal detention for irregular migrants awaiting return will increase from six months to two years, with no upper limit for individuals deemed a security risk. Entry bans will be toughened from five to ten years in most cases, with lifetime bans possible for those considered a security threat. Negotiators from EU countries and the Parliament are expected to finalise the text in Brussels this evening, with the main point of contention being the timeline for implementation.
The broader context includes ongoing debates about migration across Europe. For instance, a recent court case involving French boys abandoned in Portugal ordered returned to France by court highlights the complexities of intra-EU movement and family law. Meanwhile, the EU's economic chief has ruled out a return to Russian gas and oil, underscoring the bloc's shifting priorities in energy security. The migration crackdown also resonates with broader geopolitical tensions, as seen in protests by groups like Pussy Riot and FEMEN against Russia's return to the Venice Biennale.
The Return Regulation represents a hardening of EU migration policy that would have been unthinkable just a few years ago. As European voters increasingly prioritise border control, the bloc is embracing measures that critics argue undermine fundamental rights, while supporters insist they are necessary to restore public confidence in the asylum system. The outcome of today's negotiations will set the stage for a new phase in Europe's approach to migration, one defined by deterrence and removal rather than integration and protection.
