The impact of US tariffs on European exports is now clearly visible in trade data. In the first three months of 2026, the value of EU goods shipped to the United States fell by 30% compared with the same period in 2025, according to Eurostat. That makes the US the bloc's second-worst performing major export market, ahead only of Iran.
The decline follows the imposition of a 15% tariff by the Trump administration in August 2025 on a range of European goods. Washington justified the measure by citing a trade deficit in goods with the EU of more than €300 billion, though Eurostat figures put the actual shortfall closer to €200 billion. The deficit is largely offset by American services exports to the EU, reducing the bloc's overall trade surplus to just €21 billion.
Key sectors hit hard
The tariffs have struck at the heart of several European industries. Exports of cars, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, wine, and cheese have all suffered. Germany's automotive sector, concentrated in Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg, has been particularly exposed, while French and Italian wine producers have seen demand shrink in the US market.
Despite the steep drop, the US remains the EU's largest export destination for goods, accounting for roughly €120 billion or 19% of the bloc's total. The UK is second with 14%, followed by Switzerland (9%), China (7%), and Turkey (4%).
The overall value of EU goods exports to the rest of the world fell by 9% in Q1 2026 compared with the same quarter in 2025. Exports to China and Turkey each declined by 8%. The sharpest contraction was with Iran, down 44%, driven largely by EU sanctions linked to Tehran's nuclear programme, support for Russia, and human rights abuses.
Bright spots: Indonesia, India, UK
Not all trade relationships are souring. Exports to Indonesia surged by 23% in the first quarter, following the finalisation of the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), which aims to eliminate or reduce tariffs on most EU goods and streamline customs procedures. The deal is expected to enter into force later this year or in 2027.
Exports also grew modestly to India (1.8%) and the UK (2.3%). The increase with Britain reflects ongoing post-Brexit trade normalisation, though the relationship remains complex.
New tariffs on the horizon?
The trade war between Brussels and Washington may not be over. In April, President Donald Trump threatened to impose additional tariffs of 10% or more on EU imports, accusing the bloc of failing to tackle trade in goods made with forced labour. The European Commission dismissed the accusation as “unjustified.”
Trump also complained that the EU had yet to implement its commitments under the trade deal struck in July 2025. He gave Brussels until 4 July to finalise its side of the agreement. The European Parliament is now preparing to vote on the deal on 16 June.
Under the agreement, the EU is expected to remove duties on US industrial goods and grant preferential market access for several American agricultural and seafood products, including tree nuts, dairy, fresh and processed fruits and vegetables, processed foods, planting seeds, soybean oil, and pork and bison meat, according to the White House.
The broader context of EU trade diversification is also worth noting. As the bloc seeks to reduce reliance on any single partner, it has been pursuing new agreements with partners in Asia and Latin America. The CEPA with Indonesia is one example, and the EU is also pushing for supplier diversification away from China, as outlined in recent plans by the EU trade chief.
For now, the US remains Europe's most important trading partner, but the relationship is under significant strain. The coming weeks will determine whether the current deal holds or whether a new round of tariffs deepens the rift.
