Uzbekistan's economy expanded by 8.5% in the first half of 2026 compared to the same period last year, according to official data presented at a meeting chaired by President Shavkat Mirziyoyev. The figures mark the strongest growth in years, driven by a surge in services and investment that has reshaped the Central Asian nation's economic landscape.
Investment reached approximately €24.6 billion over the six months, with exports totaling around €12.7 billion. Services grew by 16.9%, construction by 13.8%, industry by 8%, and agriculture by 4.7%. The performance underscores a structural shift away from agriculture toward industry and services, a transformation that began with reforms launched in 2017.
Credit Upgrades Reflect Investor Confidence
International credit rating agencies have taken note. Moody's upgraded Uzbekistan's sovereign credit rating from Ba3 to Ba2 in June, while Fitch maintained its BB rating but shifted the outlook from stable to positive. Both moves signal growing trust among global investors in the trajectory of economic liberalization, including foreign-exchange liberalization, trade opening, privatization, and monetary reform.
President Mirziyoyev urged regional and sector leaders to extract greater value from existing investment, industrial, and export projects. "To improve the living standards of our 40 million people, economic growth of 9% to 10% is essential," he said during the review.
The Ministry of Economy and Finance attributed the first-half figures to a deliberate rebalancing of the economy. Saidkhonov Saidislombek, a department head at the ministry, noted that agriculture's share of gross value added fell from 27.3% in 2017 to 17.3% in 2025, while industry rose from around 22% to nearly 27% and services climbed from 43.7% to 48.6%.
Gross fixed capital formation reached €41.3 billion by the end of 2025, up from approximately €12.3 billion earlier in the reform period. The investment-to-GDP ratio rose from 19.5% to about 32%, and exports increased from roughly €10.6 billion in 2017 to €29.9 billion in 2025.
Koba Gvenetadze, the IMF Resident Representative in Uzbekistan, praised the reforms, particularly a new central bank law that had "strengthened credibility and independence" at the Central Bank of Uzbekistan. He emphasized that greater exchange-rate flexibility was a necessary condition for shifting toward inflation targeting and making the economy more resilient to external shocks.
The presidential review examined whether investment agreements were translating into actual output and exports. Agreements reached during 52 high-level visits cover 1,617 investment projects worth approximately €187.3 billion. However, the presidency noted uneven implementation and instructed officials to address barriers in certification, working capital access, logistics, and market entry abroad.
Employment formalization remains a gradual process. Regional employment agencies have been tasked with expanding vocational training and linking infrastructure programs more directly to job creation. Officials were told to focus on household incomes for the remainder of 2026.
Andrin Fink, a program officer at the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation, observed "a lot of reforms and a lot of efforts" to formalize employment but cautioned against expecting a rapid transition. "It is of course a very big transition," he said, adding that it would require "a big effort and maybe a little bit of time." Formal employment gives workers access to social insurance, pensions, and other protections.
Switzerland and Uzbekistan's employment ministry have developed an online commentary on the Labour Code adopted in 2023, intended to help workers and employers understand how the legislation applies outside the country's largest cities. This initiative reflects broader efforts to modernize the labor market as Uzbekistan continues its economic transformation.
For European investors and policymakers, Uzbekistan's trajectory offers a case study in post-Soviet reform, with potential implications for trade and investment links across the wider region. As the country pushes toward sustained growth above 9%, its ability to convert ambitious agreements into tangible results will be closely watched.
