Since the escalation of the US-Iran conflict in late February, European motorists have faced steadily rising fuel prices. A new report commissioned by Greenpeace Germany calculates that oil companies have reaped an additional €36 billion in margins from diesel and petrol sales across the European Union between March 1 and October 19 — roughly €154.4 million per day. Diesel accounts for €28.2 billion of that windfall, while petrol contributes almost €7.8 billion.
The figures have reignited a political debate about whether Brussels should impose a Europe-wide tax on these so-called windfall profits. EU energy ministers discussed measures to cushion consumers at an October 29 meeting, but they failed to reach an agreement on a specific levy. Some member states, including Germany, Portugal, Spain, Austria, Italy and Poland, have already voiced support for such a tax, and a handful have introduced their own versions.
Why the profits are so large
Europe's heavy reliance on imported fossil fuels is the root cause. Oil, gas and coal still supply nearly 60% of the EU's final energy consumption, and the bloc produces very little of it domestically, notes Noah Gordon, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. Renewables are gradually displacing gas in electricity generation, but progress is uneven. "Road transport is still dominated by petrol and diesel, while natural gas dominates home heating," says Ben McWilliams, affiliate fellow at the Brussels-based think tank Bruegel. With the conflict disrupting shipments and squeezing supply, consumers have few alternatives.
The Greenpeace report identifies refinery operators, particularly the major oil companies, as the main beneficiaries. Profits were highest at the crude oil production stage, where costs remain far below international crude prices, widening the gap with retail fuel prices. Corporate results confirm the trend: Shell reported a doubling of its third-quarter 2026 gains to $10.81 billion, beating analyst estimates and nearly doubling from $5.43 billion a year earlier. TotalEnergies posted an adjusted net income of $9.1 billion for July to September, more than double its $4 billion in the same period of 2025. BP's net income reached $8.46 billion in the third quarter, its highest since 2008.
Profiteering or passing on costs?
The oil industry rejects accusations of profiteering, arguing that higher revenues simply reflect rising crude prices and that it is merely passing those costs on to consumers. Gordon acknowledges part of that argument: "A big reason for rising consumer fuel prices is a shortage of refining capacity. The crack spread — the difference in cost between a barrel of crude oil and a barrel of refined product like diesel or gasoline — has tripled in Europe since the start of the Hormuz crisis."
But he sees limits to that defence. "Oil companies are doing more than just passing on the cost of expensive oil. Naturally, as profit-seeking entities must, they are also profiting through increased margins," he told European Pulse.
Greenpeace points to a persistent gap between crude price increases and pump price increases. EU pre-tax diesel prices rose 22.7 cents per litre more than crude prices, while petrol prices rose 13.3 cents more. The report found no significant rise in refiners' other costs — production, refining, distribution — and concludes that the difference represents extra margins pocketed at the pump.
National variations and price caps
The windfall was largest in the biggest fuel markets. Germany saw combined extra profits of just under €6.7 billion, followed by France (€5.7 billion), Italy (almost €5.1 billion) and Spain (over €4.7 billion). Germany also recorded the highest daily figure at €28.7 million, ahead of France (€24.6 million) and Italy (€21.7 million). Per litre of diesel, margins were highest in Sweden (27.4 ct/l), Spain (26.6 ct/l) and Slovenia (25.4 ct/l); for petrol, they peaked in Denmark (18.4 ct/l), Germany (16.9 ct/l) and Spain (15.5 ct/l).
Government intervention made a difference. "What mattered most was whether the government set the pump price. In countries with fixed or capped prices — Malta, Hungary, Slovakia, Slovenia, Croatia — diesel before tax went up on average by €0.38 per litre, compared with €0.57 elsewhere," says Matteo Prina, research group leader at Eurac Research's Institute for Renewable Energy. But caps are not a panacea. "Belgium and Luxembourg also regulated prices, but their maximum price is linked to wholesale prices, so refining margins pass straight through. Tax cuts lowered pump prices, but the price before tax rose just as much in countries that cut taxes as in those that didn't. That makes me think part of the relief went into margins," Prina explains. Caps can also create shortages, as seen in Slovakia and Slovenia, where governments had to ration fuel.
What could an EU-wide tax look like?
Short-term measures such as cutting energy taxes or providing subsidies can ease the burden on households, but they "largely shift the costs from energy consumers to taxpayers. It does not change the underlying problem that Europe is paying more to import fossil fuels," McWilliams warns. That is why attention has turned to taxing the profits themselves.
The European Commission has not yet proposed a windfall tax, but pressure is building. Portugal already levies a 33% tax on oil and refining companies' extraordinary 2026 profits. The EU previously imposed a similar levy in 2022, following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, through the so-called "solidarity contribution" — a minimum 33% tax on taxable profits exceeding the average of the previous years. A new EU-wide measure could follow that template, though the political hurdles remain significant. As the energy crisis continues to squeeze households and businesses, the question of who should bear the cost — and who should benefit — is far from settled.
