France's political summer is over, but the battles have just begun. With the 2027 presidential election less than eight months away and no majority in the National Assembly, the government is walking a tightrope between passing a budget and surviving a no-confidence vote.
Lecornu's balancing act
Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu, in an interview with Le Parisien, outlined his strategy: a budget for 2027 that includes measures "that, for the most part, can be reversed by the new majority that emerges from the ballot box." He ruled out tax increases, instead focusing on an agricultural "rescue plan" and a reform of sick leave.
Lecornu, who has repeatedly denied presidential ambitions, said: "I don't know in what language I have to say it, I am not a candidate in the presidential election. I am not getting involved in the presidential campaign." He was speaking at the summer school of the Laboratoire de la République, the movement founded by former education minister Jean-Michel Blanquer, held in Sens.
The prime minister's task is delicate. France's fiscal position remains under scrutiny, with analysts expecting Fitch to hold France's A+ rating, but the political landscape is fragmented. The government must navigate between a left that threatens censure and a far right that senses victory.
Socialists threaten censure
Olivier Faure, first secretary of the Socialist Party, used the PS summer meetings to warn that if the budget reflects the ideas of Gabriel Attal and Édouard Philippe, "with the support of the far right," the Socialists would vote to censure it. He called on the left to "build a barrier" against the alliance between "the far right" and "big money," declaring that "the hour of ecological socialism has struck." Faure kept his own intentions vague ahead of a possible left-wing primary.
Bardella and the RN's confidence
At the Châlons-en-Champagne fair in the Marne, Jordan Bardella, president of the Rassemblement national, insisted his party had "worked hard this summer on a programme to get the country back on its feet" and was fully engaged in the "presidential campaign." Although once tipped as the far-right candidate, Bardella has had to fall in behind Marine Le Pen, who remains the party's standard-bearer for 2027.
Philippe and Hollande: strange bedfellows
In a notable debate at the Laboratoire de la République summer school, Édouard Philippe, the former prime minister and leader of Horizons, faced François Hollande, the former Socialist president whose ambitions for 2027 appear to be growing. The two found common ground in their distrust of the extremes.
"In a country that is so divided, where discord has taken hold, where there is a form of radicalism, of populism, where people are set against one another, we must unite (…) against all those who divide," Hollande said. Philippe, who hopes to rally the right and centre, echoed the sentiment, urging caution toward the Rassemblement national and La France insoumise "not because they are illegitimate in the public debate, but because they divide."
The debate underscored the fluidity of French politics, where traditional loyalties are shifting. Philippe's centrist project and Hollande's late resurgence could reshape the race, but both face the challenge of breaking through a polarized landscape.
As the budget debate looms, the coming weeks will test whether Lecornu can steer a course between censure and paralysis. The outcome will set the tone for the presidential campaign, with climate policy already emerging as a key test for candidates. Meanwhile, the broader European context—such as France's declining share of EU GDP—adds urgency to the fiscal debate.
For now, the political season in France is open, and every move is being watched from Brussels to Berlin.
