For the Lecornu government, simply avoiding a downgrade would be a relief. On Friday, one month before the 2027 finance bill reaches the National Assembly, Fitch will deliver its verdict on France's sovereign credit rating.
The agency currently assigns an A+ rating to the eurozone's second-largest economy, with a stable outlook. France lost its double-A status in September 2025, when Fitch penalised political instability following the dissolution of the National Assembly, a period marked by the short-lived governments of Michel Barnier and François Bayrou, which lasted 99 and 270 days respectively. That assessment was reaffirmed in March 2026.
Speaking to Euronews, Hadrien Camatte, senior economist for France, Belgium and the eurozone at Natixis CIB, said the status quo is "the most likely scenario", although "a move to a negative outlook cannot be ruled out".
Weaker growth and a difficult summer
Since March, the macroeconomic picture has deteriorated somewhat, according to Camatte and his colleague Théophile Legrand, a rates strategist. They point to a downward revision of growth forecasts for 2026, "in the wake of the war in the Middle East". In March, Fitch projected 1% growth for 2026; the French government has since lowered its forecast to 0.7%, while Natixis CIB expects 0.6%.
On Friday morning, fresh data showed French GDP was flat in the second quarter, at 0.0%, instead of the 0.2% rebound initially reported by Insee. The statistics agency cited "an even sharper deterioration in agricultural output compared with the information available at the end of July".
Economy minister Roland Lescure called this "the first concrete impact of the dreadful summer we've just been through", referring to repeated heatwaves and drought. The summer's extreme weather has also prompted adjustments to cheese production rules as Alpine pastures suffer.
Deficit and debt: little room to manoeuvre
On the fiscal front, Fitch forecasts a deficit of 4.9% of GDP, close to the government's 5% target, while Natixis CIB expects 5.1%. These levels "leave no fiscal room for manoeuvre to reduce it over the coming years", Camatte and Legrand argue.
Public debt is expected to keep rising until at least 2030, driven by sharply higher interest costs. The two analysts stress that this is "a crucial issue for the ratings agency", which warned in March that a key factor influencing the rating would be "a lasting increase in the public debt-to-GDP ratio in the medium term, due to an inability to implement fiscal consolidation measures or to a persistent rise in financing costs".
The broader European context adds another layer: France's share of EU GDP has declined over two decades, while other members like Poland have gained ground.
Political risks ahead of 2027
The analysts note that "the next budget cycle looks particularly challenging for cutting the deficit, while the looming presidential election is likely to heighten political volatility".
Nevertheless, they believe Fitch may show patience: "the budget cycle has not yet started and the main risks could materialise more fully in 2027".
Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu plans to present the 2027 budget on 30 September, with parliamentary debates beginning in October. Jean-Luc Mélenchon has already announced that his party, France Unbowed (LFI), will move to censure the new budget.
The outcome of Friday's review will be closely watched, not only in Paris but across the eurozone, as France's fiscal trajectory remains a bellwether for European debt markets. The climate crisis is also testing presidential hopefuls, adding another layer of uncertainty to the political landscape.
