Sunday's state elections in Germany delivered a sobering verdict for Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU). According to exit polls by public broadcaster ARD, the CDU is projected to win just 5.5% in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, a largely rural state in the former communist east. That would mark the party's worst result there since the end of the Second World War.
In Berlin, the CDU is projected to finish second with 20% of the vote, trailing the Left Party (Die Linke), which leads with 24.5%. The results underscore the erosion of support for Merz's party in both eastern and urban constituencies, and they come just two weeks after the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) narrowly missed an absolute majority in the small eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt.
The AfD made significant gains in Sunday's regional elections, continuing a trend that has rattled the political establishment. In Saxony-Anhalt, the party came within a whisker of forming the country's first far-right regional government since the Nazi era, a prospect that has heightened concerns across Europe about the resilience of democratic norms in Germany.
Merz under pressure
Merz, 70, took the helm of the federal government 16 months ago, promising to revive an economy that has stagnated for years. Yet his tenure has been marked by a persistent national gloom, and his personal approval ratings have plummeted. The strong showing of the AfD in Saxony-Anhalt has further weakened his standing, prompting murmurs of discontent within his own party.
Although no senior CDU figures have publicly called for his resignation, many have cautioned against opening a divisive internal debate over leadership. The party's poor performance in these two states is likely to intensify those warnings, even as Merz tries to project stability.
Apparently anticipating a challenging post-election period, Merz has cancelled a planned trip to New York next week to attend the UN General Assembly. The move suggests he intends to focus on domestic damage control and shore up his position within the party.
The results also carry broader implications for Germany's political landscape. The rise of the AfD and the Left Party reflects a growing polarisation, with voters in the east particularly disillusioned with the traditional parties. As state votes test Merz, the chancellor faces the daunting task of addressing the economic anxieties and social grievances that are fuelling support for the political extremes.
For the CDU, the losses in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin are a stark reminder of the challenges ahead. The party, which once dominated German politics, now finds itself squeezed between a resurgent far right and a left that is gaining traction in urban centres. Whether Merz can reverse this trend remains an open question, but Sunday's results suggest that his message is not resonating with voters.
As Germany grapples with these political shifts, the rest of Europe will be watching closely. A weakened chancellor in Berlin could have ripple effects across the EU, particularly on issues ranging from fiscal policy to migration. The coming weeks will be crucial for Merz as he seeks to stabilise his government and regain the trust of the electorate.
