A new study published in The Lancet projects that the number of women aged 35 to 49 facing infertility will approach 80 million globally by 2036 — a nearly 1.5-fold increase from the 53.6 million cases recorded in 2023. The sharpest rise is expected among women aged 35–39, reflecting a trend that researchers attribute primarily to delayed childbearing.
Analysing data from the Global Burden of Disease 2023 study, which covers 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2023, Chinese researchers found that infertility has increased most markedly in more developed nations. The authors note that age-related declines in ovarian reserve and egg quality reduce fecundity, elevate miscarriage risk, and lower the success rates of assisted reproductive technologies.
“As population ageing and socioeconomic transitions accelerate, the number of women exposed to advanced-age infertility risk is rising, expanding its public health relevance,” the authors wrote.
Social and economic drivers behind the trend
In many middle-income and rapidly developing countries, infertility is becoming more common due to converging social and demographic changes. People are marrying and attempting pregnancy later; more women in their late 30s and 40s still wish to conceive; and greater awareness of fertility problems means more couples seek help. Yet in many of these settings, fertility tests and treatments remain expensive, limited, or geographically inaccessible, meaning demand for care is rising much faster than supply.
Rocío Núñez Calonge, a biologist and fertility expert who did not participate in the study, cautioned that expanding assisted reproductive therapy options alone will not address the rise in infertility among older women. “In countries such as Spain, it is also necessary to address the social factors that contribute to delayed motherhood, particularly those relating to work-life balance, economic stability and institutional support for early motherhood,” she said.
Spain, like several other European Union member states, has seen a steady increase in the average age of first childbirth, now above 32 years. Similar patterns are observed in Italy, Germany, and the Nordic countries, where housing costs, precarious employment, and limited childcare infrastructure often push family formation into later decades.
Infertility is not exclusively a women’s issue. The study notes that around one in six people globally will experience infertility at some point in their lives, and between 8–12% of reproductive-aged couples worldwide are affected. Male factors contribute to roughly half of all cases, though the current analysis focuses on female infertility.
The findings come amid broader European debates about demographic decline and family policy. Several EU governments have introduced measures to support fertility treatments, such as France’s expansion of state-funded IVF and Germany’s recent reforms to surrogacy laws. However, access remains uneven across the continent, with significant disparities between Western and Eastern member states.
For European readers, the study underscores the need for policies that address both the medical and social dimensions of infertility. As the continent’s population ages and birth rates remain low, ensuring that those who wish to have children can do so — at a biologically optimal age — will require coordinated action on labour markets, housing, and childcare.
For more on how Europeans are rethinking work and leisure, see our report on nearly half of European travellers planning 'skillidays' this summer. Meanwhile, the EU’s push for defence cooperation, as detailed in the launch of five joint defence projects, highlights the bloc’s broader efforts to address shared challenges.
