The International Energy Agency's executive director, Fatih Birol, has issued a stark warning to European leaders: relaxing sanctions on Russian energy would be a grave error, even as the bloc grapples with a new price shock triggered by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. In an exclusive interview with Euronews, Birol argued that returning to Russian supplies would repeat the mistakes that left Europe vulnerable in 2022.
“Europe paid for its overreliance in 2022. Once, it's a mistake; doing it for a second time, that's no longer a mistake,” Birol said. “There are many other options Europe should look into, more secure in terms of energy, foreign and defence policies.”
The comments come as the EU faces a second energy crisis in four years. The Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint carrying one-fifth of global oil supplies, has been effectively shut by Tehran since March, sending oil prices up 65% and more than doubling gas prices, according to European Commission estimates. The turmoil has reignited debates about energy security across the continent, with some member states pressing for relief.
Brussels Stands Firm on Russian Sanctions
Despite the price pressures, Brussels has ruled out any easing of sanctions on Russian energy, including indirect imports via third countries. Economy Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis told Euronews that any waiver would be a strategic mistake from a security perspective, as financing Moscow through energy would prolong the war against Ukraine. The EU's stance aligns with Birol's warning that “knocking on Russia’s door would be a major error.”
The United States and the United Kingdom have taken a more flexible approach. Washington extended a 30-day sanctions waiver on Russian oil at sea to relieve poorer countries, while London eased restrictions on imports of Russian jet fuel and diesel refined elsewhere, though it insists this is not a core sanctions waiver. The EU has refused to follow suit, but rising energy costs are stoking tensions among member states.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni recently sent a letter to the European Commission arguing that the energy crisis is as critical as defence and calling for energy measures to be exempt from debt and deficit rules. Her push reflects growing unease in southern Europe, where higher prices are hitting households and businesses hard. For more on this, see our analysis of Magyar's Brussels Visit, Energy Crisis, and EU's Russia Dilemma.
The Largest Energy Security Crisis in History
The IEA's annual World Energy Investment report, released Thursday, warns that disruptions from the Strait of Hormuz could surpass the 1970s oil crisis, calling it the “largest energy security crisis the world has ever faced.” Global energy investments are projected to reach $3.4 trillion this year, with $2.2 trillion directed toward grids, storage, low-emissions fuels, nuclear, renewables, and electrification, and $1.2 trillion toward oil, gas, and coal.
Birol emphasised that Europe's long-term strategy must pivot decisively toward electrification. “European competitiveness and European sovereignty will critically hinge on its energy strategy. In my view, Europe’s energy future is electrification and we should electrify our economies as much as possible,” he said, adding that nuclear energy will play a role in the transition away from fossil fuels.
The crisis has underscored the link between economic and energy security. For the EU, the first shock came with the Russian gas crisis following its invasion of Ukraine, and the war in Iran has made a review of long-term strategy even more pressing. Birol noted that Europe has not always made the right choices, but now must be clear: “It is at the heart of the sovereignty of the continent.”
As the bloc weighs its options, the IEA chief's warning serves as a reminder that short-term relief could come at a long-term cost. For a deeper dive into the broader implications, read our coverage of the IEA Chief Warns Strait of Hormuz Crisis Poses Greatest Energy Security Threat in Modern History and Meloni Turns Up Heat on Brussels for Fiscal Relief as Energy Costs Bite.
