Tehran's military leadership has signaled it may strike first against the United States, while senior Revolutionary Guard figures insist they hold the Strait of Hormuz and Washington openly questions who actually governs Iran.
Brigadier General Mohammad Akrami-Nia, spokesman for Iran's regular army, told state news agency IRNA on Wednesday that "should circumstances require it, we will conduct pre-emptive operations down the line in order to prevent the enemy from committing any act of aggression or intrusion." The remarks come as the conflict that began with US-Israeli strikes on 28 February continues to escalate.
Separately, Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Naqdi, a senior adviser to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), claimed the strait is firmly under Iranian control. "The Strait of Hormuz is closed and the armed forces have full control over it, and this situation will continue until Iran's legitimate demands are met," he said in a media interview. Naqdi also alleged that some vessels are using small boats to smuggle oil through the waterway to larger tankers, and warned that "soon, a small number of the routes that violators have created by blasting and destroying some of the existing rocky passages in the Strait of Hormuz will be blocked."
Another IRGC adviser, Brigadier General Amirahmadi, said international bodies had recorded an average of around 10 ships per day transiting the strait, down from nearly 125 before the war. He added that these vessels "mainly pass through the waterway and designated route with the permission of the Islamic Republic of Iran."
Washington questions Tehran's decision-making
US Vice President JD Vance confirmed that Washington has held talks with President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, but said it was unclear how much authority the two men actually wield within Iran's complex power structure. "One of the things we picked up on is it's not totally clear how their country makes decisions," Vance told Reuters after a campaign event in Alaska. He stressed that the main US objective is to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear arms and suggested Tehran should take a concrete step on enrichment to demonstrate it is not seeking a weapon. "I think if they want to show a commitment to not building a nuclear weapon, they would do something meaningful on their enrichment capacity," he said.
President Donald Trump, speaking in Maryland on Tuesday, claimed full US control over the strait and dismissed Iran's military posture. "They were the bully of the Middle East. They're not so much the bully anymore, but we have to finish up. And it's only a question of which way do we want to do it, the nice way or the not-so-nice way. And pretty soon you'll find out," he said. Trump has repeatedly called for "new leadership in Iran" and described the newly appointed Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei—who has yet to make a single public appearance since his appointment in March—as "a sick man." However, in a June podcast, Trump suggested the younger Khamenei is in charge, saying "they say he is giving approval, because that's the way it has been for a long, long time."
Pezeshkian, in a speech on Wednesday, said his government was engaged in negotiations while facing what he called "an all-out war on every front." He insisted that "we speak from a position of dignity and power, and at the same time we are vigorously pursuing a programme of resistance and resilience." On the country's severe electricity shortages, he said the government would close sports and cultural centres if necessary to reduce consumption.
The standoff has broader implications for European energy security and maritime trade. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for oil and gas shipments to Europe, and any sustained disruption could ripple through global markets. European capitals are watching closely, with some officials privately urging Washington to avoid further escalation. The situation also echoes other flashpoints, such as the Yemeni forces' push toward Bab el-Mandeb, another vital waterway, and the ongoing inquiry into a UK arrest linked to Tehran.
As the war grinds on, the question of who truly commands Iran's military and nuclear program remains unresolved. The IRGC's public assertions of control over Hormuz contrast with Washington's claims of a naval blockade, and the lack of clarity over Tehran's decision-making only deepens the risk of miscalculation. For European policymakers, the stakes are high: a wider conflict in the Gulf would test the continent's energy security and its diplomatic cohesion.
