Eight months before France's presidential election, Jean-Luc Mélenchon is gaining ground. According to a Toluna-Harris Interactive poll for M6 and RTL, the leader of La France Insoumise (LFI) would qualify for the second round in three of five scenarios tested.
France's two-round system means the top two candidates in the first round face each other in a run-off. In the poll, Mélenchon scores above 16%, up from 12% in April. That puts him within reach of Édouard Philippe, long seen as the main challenger to Marine Le Pen's Rassemblement National (RN).
However, if former president François Hollande enters the race, Mélenchon would finish two points behind Philippe. The most favourable scenarios for Mélenchon involve a fragmented centre and right. When several candidates compete for the centre ground, LFI's leader can slip through.
Momentum at the right time
Mélenchon's rise comes as he addresses thousands of activists at LFI's summer conference in Châteauneuf-sur-Isère, near Valence. "Victory is possible," he declared, openly embracing his presidential ambitions. In a nearly 45-minute speech, he focused on the economy and the environment, calling for an "ecological state" and a "clear and unequivocal break" with current policies.
"Climate change is ushering in a completely new era for human civilisation," he said, arguing for fundamental changes to how people live, produce and trade. He also launched a blistering attack on Emmanuel Macron's ten-year record, saying "his departure is now awaited on all sides as a liberation." Mélenchon promised to seek censure of Sébastien Lecornu's government if its draft 2027 budget is maintained, judging it would "worsen all the ills" afflicting the French economy.
Left divided
Mélenchon's surge coincides with other left-wing forces charting a different course. Raphaël Glucksmann officially announced his presidential bid on Sunday, positioning himself as a social-democratic, pro-European alternative. The co-president of Place Publique has called for the left to turn the page on "Mélenchonism" and urged the Socialist Party not to renew its alliance with LFI. The parties had joined forces under Nupes in 2022 and again under the New Popular Front after Macron dissolved parliament in June 2024. Glucksmann polls at around 10%.
The Greens are torn. Party leader Marine Tondelier wants to keep channels open with LFI, while others favour closer ties with Glucksmann, the Socialists and Place Publique. Green MP Jérémie Iordanoff has called for a joint structure, while Yannick Jadot, the Greens' 2022 presidential candidate, announced he is joining Glucksmann's camp, arguing that Mélenchon's politics are incompatible with Green values.
The numbers game
The divisions could prove significant. Although Mélenchon benefits from the fragmentation of his rivals, the left faces a familiar problem: multiple candidates risk splitting the first-round vote. Mélenchon dismissed the concern, saying: "What matters is not the number of candidates, but the number of voters."
Yet there is a major weakness in his path to the Élysée. While he is increasingly competitive in the first round, the second remains far more challenging. In a head-to-head with Le Pen, she would take around 68% of the vote against 32% for Mélenchon. Le Pen also beats all other candidates tested, though her lead is much narrower against Philippe.
There is still a long way to go before the first round on 18 April 2027. Candidates could withdraw or enter, new alliances could emerge, and the political balance could shift. For now, the poll represents a significant boost for Mélenchon. Since launching his campaign in the spring, he has not appeared so well placed to reach the second round. That brings him back to the gamble at the heart of his campaign: that a fragmented field can provide a route into the run-off.
Related: Glucksmann's entry into the race adds another layer to the left's dilemma. Meanwhile, France's drought-hit harvest and climate activism across Europe underscore the environmental challenges Mélenchon seeks to address.
