After a brief respite, Germany and much of central Europe are bracing for another surge of intense heat. Meteorologists are tracking a persistent weather pattern: as soon as temperatures ease, high pressure rapidly reasserts itself, pushing the mercury back toward record levels.
“At the moment Germany is on the cold side of the high,” explains meteorologist Dominik Jung. The hot air is currently pooling over Spain and France, but weather models suggest the Azores high will soon extend into central Europe. The first hints of warmth could reach western and southwestern Germany by the end of next week, with temperatures of 30°C or more possible across large parts of the country. The most optimistic scenario sees a return of heat by the following weekend, though a boundary between air masses could form over Germany, making both the timing and intensity uncertain.
Why the Cool Spell Feels More Extreme Than It Is
The current cool-down, driven by a north-westerly flow and an upper-level trough, has pushed temperatures below 30°C in many areas. Near thunderstorms, they can even drop locally below 20°C. For the second half of July, this is actually normal to slightly below-average summer weather. “The impression of cold is mainly created by the contrast with the extreme heat beforehand,” Jung stresses. What was truly exceptional was the preceding hot spell: at the end of June, temperatures of 41.7°C set new records in Germany, and the heat-warning phase lasted around twelve days—one of the longest since the DWD heat warning system was introduced in 2005.
The shift in weather also raises the risk of severe thunderstorms, particularly in the south and south-east: Bavaria, Baden-Württemberg, and parts of Saxony. Forecasters warn of localised severe weather with torrential rain, hail, and gale-force gusts. Northern and central Germany may see thunderstorms too, but generally less intense.
“Summer Keeps Snapping Back”
What stands out this summer is the unusual persistence of the pattern. “As a meteorologist, what surprises me most is how stubborn the pattern is,” says Jung. After each cool spell, the area of high pressure rebuilds astonishingly quickly. “Summer almost keeps snapping back into heat mode.” Another striking feature is the strong fluctuations between individual weather models. Some runs have simulated extremely high values; at times, the American weather model has even produced outliers of up to 47°C—around 20 degrees above the average of many model calculations. “You rarely see jumps like that. They show how much small disturbances in the atmosphere are currently making forecasting more difficult.”
This pattern is not unique to Germany. Across Europe, similar dynamics are playing out. In France, the heat has already forced the shutdown of three nuclear reactors due to cooling regulations, as reported by European Pulse. Meanwhile, energy demand for cooling has doubled in six years across the continent, a trend that our analysis has documented.
Longer-Term Outlook: Warm and Dry
Looking ahead to the coming weeks, the signal still points to a generally warm and dry trend. After this unsettled phase, many models expect high pressure to strengthen again. From around 21 July, temperatures of between 28°C and 34°C, and locally up to 38°C, are again possible. That would mean a return of heat days, desert-like days, and tropical nights. At the same time, dryness could once more become a concern in many regions. However, long-range forecasts still come with considerable uncertainty. “A trend is not a pinpoint forecast,” Jung explains. “Beyond a week, the spread is large.” So the further ahead you look, the wider the range of model outcomes becomes.
Only one thing seems certain: summer clearly has no intention of retreating. For those affected by the heat, the psychological toll can be significant—a phenomenon explored in our piece on Summer SAD. As the pattern persists, Europeans from Berlin to Barcelona will be watching the skies and the thermometers, waiting for the next snap back.
