Reform UK, the hard-right party led by Nigel Farage, is projected to make substantial gains in local elections across England on Thursday, capitalising on voter anger over immigration and dissatisfaction with the main political parties. Polls suggest the party could secure between 1,200 and 1,600 council seats, according to the More in Common think tank, building on its 40% share in smaller local polls last year.
The party's surge, which has seen it lead national polls at around 26%—ahead of the Conservatives at 19% and Labour at 18%—is driven largely by its tough stance on irregular migration. Reform has promised mass deportations if it wins the next general election, due in 2029. The number of migrants crossing the English Channel in small boats remains a flashpoint, with voters like Robert Robinson, a 70-year-old former Conservative supporter in Essex, saying: "All the other parties, they've all had their chance to stop the boats and none of them have done it."
Turquoise Tide in Essex and Beyond
In the county of Essex, Reform's distinctive turquoise campaign bus has drawn enthusiastic responses. The party's shadow chancellor, Robert Jenrick—a former Conservative minister who defected—told AFP that people feel the old parties "failed them massively, let them down." He cited high immigration, high taxes, potholes, and NHS waiting lists as key grievances. Luke Tryl of More in Common noted "a lot of turquoise rising" on the map of Essex.
Reform is also expected to perform well in Wales and Scotland, where devolved parliament elections are being held. Farage told London's Standard newspaper that the Conservatives "will disappear as a national party" after the polls. Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch, whose constituency lies in northwest Essex, has sought to stem the tide, insisting: "This is a New Conservative Party, new leader. I'm changing things. We made mistakes in the past." She has criticised Farage as someone who "changes his mind constantly."
Political expert Tim Bale from Queen Mary University in London attributes Reform's appeal among older voters to discomfort with social changes, including "the advent of a progressively more multicultural and more socially liberal Britain."
Reform has faced controversy over candidates accused of racist and xenophobic remarks. Daniel Irlam, a 28-year-old medical photographer planning to vote Green, described the party as "a fear campaign" and "hate mongering." Farage, a self-described friend of US President Donald Trump, has also faced questions over an undeclared £5-million donation from a cryptocurrency magnate.
The local elections, with over 5,000 council seats up for grabs, could deliver a significant blow to both Prime Minister Keir Starmer's Labour Party and the opposition Conservatives. Reform's mantra "Vote Reform, Get Starmer out" is designed to peel away voters from both parties, particularly in traditional strongholds like Braintree, Essex, where a former airbase housing asylum seekers has stoked local anger.
While Reform leads the polls, the Green Party is also gaining ground at 15%, according to YouGov, reflecting a broader fragmentation of the British political landscape. The results will be closely watched across Europe as a bellwether for the continent's shifting political currents.
