Republicans are gathering in Dallas this week for an unprecedented midterm convention, placing Donald Trump at the heart of their campaign strategy. The two-day event, dubbed "Trumpapalooza," is a calculated bet that the former president's personal pull can overcome his deeply negative approval ratings and rescue a party facing bleak electoral forecasts.
With the 3 November elections looming, Republicans risk losing control of the House of Representatives and face a tough battle to retain the Senate. Decision Desk HQ projects Democrats winning the House 230-205 and the Senate 51-49, a revision from their earlier 50-50 prediction as the political climate worsens for the GOP.
Trump, whose approval rating hovers around 33%, will deliver the keynote on Wednesday and return for Thursday's finale after Vice President JD Vance speaks. Cabinet members, congressional leaders, and candidates in closely watched races are also on the programme. The convention is designed to persuade Trump's loyalists that he is effectively on the ballot, even though he is not.
"So what I really want you to do is pretend, please, that I'm on the ballot," Trump said at a recent rally in South Carolina. "Just come and vote. It's so important."
The strategy reflects a recognition that many of Trump's supporters are not diehard Republicans but diehard Trump voters. "They're not diehard Republican voters; they're diehard Trump voters," said Matthew Green, a politics professor at the Catholic University of America. "So, in that respect, it makes some sense to feature Trump in the hopes of getting those folks to turn out in November."
But Green expressed skepticism about whether asking supporters to imagine Trump on their ballots could overcome his broader weaknesses. "When you're in the low- to mid-30s, that's traditionally associated with a very bad midterm for your party," he said of the 80-year-old's approval ratings.
A gamble on turnout
The convention is the first Republican national gathering held specifically for a midterm election, though Democrats experimented with similar meetings in the 1970s and 1980s. No candidates will be nominated, and no formal party business is planned. Instead, organisers have constructed what amounts to a two-night television rally touting Trump's record and Republican candidates.
More than 100 House members and candidates are expected, with over 50 speakers or presentations scheduled each night. Republicans plan to highlight tax cuts, immigration enforcement, manufacturing, and prescription drug prices, while depicting Democrats as dangerously far to the left. Some Republicans, however, are privately hoping Trump sticks to that script rather than the personal grievances and off-message subjects that regularly dominate his appearances.
Not everyone is coming. Numerous lawmakers in competitive races have decided that, less than two months from Election Day, their time is better spent campaigning at home. Green said vulnerable Republicans have two reasons to keep their distance: Trump's unpopularity and the cost of losing precious days in their districts. "If you are a Republican running in a swing district, you probably want to get as much distance from Trump as possible," he said.
House Speaker Mike Johnson has acknowledged the dilemma, saying some members need to remain home because it is a "critical time" immediately before early voting accelerates nationwide.
The event doubles as a major fundraising opportunity, with attendees asked to contribute at least $25,000 (€21,000) for tickets and lodging. A Trump roundtable is priced at $250,000 (€214,000) per person, and photographs with the president are offered for $88,600 (€76,126).
Even Trump's promised national television showcase faces an unusually formidable rival: both convention nights coincide with the opening games of the NFL season.
For European observers, the convention underscores the enduring influence of Trump on American politics, a dynamic that has implications for transatlantic relations. As Trump has demanded Europe repay US military aid to Ukraine and escalated trade tensions with Canada, his potential return to power remains a key concern for European capitals. The outcome of the midterms will shape the political landscape ahead of the 2028 presidential election, and Europe is watching closely.
