Belgrade — Serbia's political landscape shifted dramatically this week as the Students List movement, born from months of anti-corruption protests, defeated Aleksandar Vučić after 14 years in power. According to Marko Prelec, senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, the new leadership is "ambivalent" about EU membership but "clearly seek better relations" with Brussels.
Prelec, who previously worked with the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia in The Hague, told European Pulse that the Students List won "purely on the strength of their promise to turn the page" on Vučić, rather than on a detailed policy platform. The movement has no single leader, no charismatic figure, and has not yet named a candidate for prime minister.
A long road to dismantle Vučić's system
"Dismantling the system that Vučić built will take a long time," Prelec said. "It's premature to worry about the Students List's capacity to lead the country. They have shown remarkable organisational skill in mobilising voters, but governing is a different challenge."
The election result marks a historic rupture in Serbian politics. Vučić, who has dominated the country since 2012, was defeated by a movement that emerged from the student-led protests that flooded Belgrade's streets ahead of the snap vote. The movement's victory was driven by widespread anger over corruption, media control, and the 2023 mass shooting that triggered the protests.
Prelec noted that the Students List's stance on EU membership has been "ambivalent," reflecting a broader public scepticism in Serbia about the bloc. However, he stressed that the movement's leadership is "clearly seeking better relations" with the EU, which could open a new chapter in Serbia's integration process.
The EU has long pressed Serbia to align with its foreign policy, including sanctions on Russia, and to normalise relations with Kosovo. Vučić's government maintained a delicate balancing act between Brussels, Moscow, and Beijing. The new leadership's approach remains untested.
Analysts in Belgrade suggest that the Students List will need to form a coalition government quickly to address urgent issues, including economic reform and the rule of law. The movement has promised to tackle corruption and strengthen democratic institutions, but Prelec cautioned that "turning the page" is easier said than done.
"The Students List has no experience in government," he said. "They will need to build alliances, both domestically and internationally. The EU is watching closely, and the signals so far are positive."
Serbia's future relationship with the EU will be a key test for the new government. The bloc has made clear that membership requires comprehensive reforms, including in the judiciary and media freedom. The Students List has indicated a willingness to engage, but concrete steps remain to be seen.
Prelec's assessment comes as the EU itself faces internal challenges, from enlargement fatigue to the war in Ukraine. A pro-EU shift in Belgrade could be a welcome development for Brussels, which has struggled to maintain influence in the Western Balkans.
For now, the Students List is basking in its electoral success, but the hard work of governance lies ahead. As Prelec put it, "The real test begins now."
